Read on Twitter
1/
#COVIDー19 #risks I see - please add yours to the list:
>companies go bankrupt and take others along the supply chain with them - $HTZ $JCP
>companies increase #leverage to extreme levels, which will limit their options for capital allocation and #innovation
#COVIDー19 #risks I see - please add yours to the list:
>companies go bankrupt and take others along the supply chain with them - $HTZ $JCP
>companies increase #leverage to extreme levels, which will limit their options for capital allocation and #innovation
2/
>companies and banks that provide #debt will see risks increase. If they don’t increase rates their risk/reward is skewed to the downside. Increases in rates will only further distress leveraged businesses
> #US leadership has deteriorated, leaving a global power vacuum
>companies and banks that provide #debt will see risks increase. If they don’t increase rates their risk/reward is skewed to the downside. Increases in rates will only further distress leveraged businesses
> #US leadership has deteriorated, leaving a global power vacuum
3/
>US - #China relations are at the worst level under the #Trump administration
>Europe may have another (bigger) #monetary crisis when one of the Southern European nations defaults
> #Brexit can have larger consequences for the #UK (als without proper negotiations)
>US - #China relations are at the worst level under the #Trump administration
>Europe may have another (bigger) #monetary crisis when one of the Southern European nations defaults
> #Brexit can have larger consequences for the #UK (als without proper negotiations)
4/
> #Sustainable investments are put on hold, while climate change doesn’t stop
>Developing economies that are fragile may collapse, which can lead to more dangerous/challenging migration
>This #uncertainty will lead to postponement of #investments, #jobs, and #growth
> #Sustainable investments are put on hold, while climate change doesn’t stop
>Developing economies that are fragile may collapse, which can lead to more dangerous/challenging migration
>This #uncertainty will lead to postponement of #investments, #jobs, and #growth
5/
>Lower earnings and increased risk will eventually pull the #stock market back down to reality, which lowers #pensions
>US #elections offer absolutely no proper (needed) alternative for the current leadership, which may lead to internal conflict if this situation persists
>Lower earnings and increased risk will eventually pull the #stock market back down to reality, which lowers #pensions
>US #elections offer absolutely no proper (needed) alternative for the current leadership, which may lead to internal conflict if this situation persists
6/
>As confidence in the US declines, trust in its institutions will decline over time as well. One of those institutions is the #FED, representing the #Dollar
What will be left of the US without the global and unanimous trust in its currency?
>As confidence in the US declines, trust in its institutions will decline over time as well. One of those institutions is the #FED, representing the #Dollar
What will be left of the US without the global and unanimous trust in its currency?
7/
Don’t get me wrong: I sincerely hope for the best
If we can find a cure, we can get back to our normal lives and repair the faults that this crisis has exposed. The risks are just too real to ignore, while media is still focused on presenting us the data instead of the story
Don’t get me wrong: I sincerely hope for the best
If we can find a cure, we can get back to our normal lives and repair the faults that this crisis has exposed. The risks are just too real to ignore, while media is still focused on presenting us the data instead of the story
Time Squeeze https://econ.trib.al/bEasQkL
#Riots are in and seem to transform into a political play already, focusing on ‘far-left’ while I think these people have fallen off the political scale because there is no #politics for them at the moment. These people need help
https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1266895821083234304?s=21 https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1266895821083234304
https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1266895821083234304?s=21 https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1266895821083234304
For completeness sake of the thread - also the part about the US-China relationship going into a new phase: https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/05/29/politics/trump-china-announcement/index.html
Just want to add this image from a few weeks ago #risk
1. Businesses can only be prosperous in good and stable environments
2. The market is ‘priced for perfection’
Given previous recession levels, we are currently balancing ourselves on a rope between two skyscrapers
1. Businesses can only be prosperous in good and stable environments
2. The market is ‘priced for perfection’
Given previous recession levels, we are currently balancing ourselves on a rope between two skyscrapers
I am currently heavily balanced into #cash, $GLD, and defensive stocks, and plan to increase that balance even further (just like in February)
If markets are up at the opening, I guess all our hope is on Mars #SpaceX
If markets are up at the opening, I guess all our hope is on Mars #SpaceX
Some big guys seem to increasingly agree. You don’t have to sell but you should consider your exposure to downside risks!!! https://on.ft.com/2XPcgHL
The single market and peace are the EU’s greatest achievements (or: were?) https://econ.trib.al/DLrudEJ
The #Euro is not designed for stalling growth in European unification
The Euro can only really prosper when #Europe becomes a joint nation of individual countries instead of a political instrument for said countries to protect their own interests
€ vs $ is sinking
The Euro can only really prosper when #Europe becomes a joint nation of individual countries instead of a political instrument for said countries to protect their own interests
€ vs $ is sinking
The #risk is real. The rewards likely won't. The story to 'invest in an ETF and sit back' does not hold up anymore. It's the time for individual stocks, real assets, or cash https://twitter.com/TheEconomist/status/1267161179446824961?s=20
Additions to the original list of #risks:
> internal tensions in ill-led developing economies such as India and Brazil
> bilateral and multilateral tensions outside of China-US relationship as economies get worse
(for new followers, I recommend to read the full thread)
> internal tensions in ill-led developing economies such as India and Brazil
> bilateral and multilateral tensions outside of China-US relationship as economies get worse
(for new followers, I recommend to read the full thread)
