I have thought very long and hard about the best mitigation strategies for the Covid-19 pandemic over the last week ... and reached the conclusion this really is a 'wicked problem'. I believe anyone who believes there are simple fixes didn't think hard enough about it (1/4)
Doing nothing is not acceptable and essentially any intervention I can think of, including 'flattening the curve measures' is likely to further worsen the situation by fuelling a second peak during the coming winter when current healthcare capacity will be further depleted. (2/4)
The 'wickedness' of the Covid-19 pandemic problem stems from the fact that there is no such choice as either saving lives or the economy, as many people seem to believe. The economy is the very reason why life expectancy is lower in say Afghanistan or Somalia than Italy or Japan.
Many lives will be lost if and when the covid-19 pandemic spreads. Even more lives will be lost if and when the global economy tanks. I find it difficult to model a plausible scenario where we will not be facing both. (4/4)
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