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Carl T. Bergstrom
CT_Bergstrom
I recently developed and delivered a 50-minute lecture on the pitfalls of selection bias for NIH's Office of Behavioral and Social Sciences Research @NIHOBSSR.It is now available for free online,
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1. Today the CDC issued new guidance on opening K-12 schools during the pandemic. The guidelines are more explicit and clearer than previous iterations. They also align closely with my
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It has not been a good news day when it comes to vaccines—particularly AstraZeneca—and the B.1.351 variant that arose in South Africa. But buried amidst the bad news of a
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No cross-strain protective immunity? Based on what evidence? Even the linked story—which @UW_IHME wrote—says nothing of the kind.I think people still listen to @UW_IHME even after last spring's modeling fiasco.
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A somewhat technical thread about measuring vaccine efficacy.We're used to the notion that certain properties of tests for disease depend on prevalence: positive and negative predictive value do, for example,
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1. Thread: Model-based mitigation strategies for school reopening. I will start with a disclosure. The work described was done in collaboration with @Color Health and I was paid as a
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After many months with little to suggest that SARS-CoV-2 was evolving to transmit more readily or evade immune responses, we are now concerning variants such as B.1.1.7 emerge and spread,
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We're going to hear more and more about various COVID mutations in the coming weeks and months. Their names, N501Y, D614G, etc. seem cryptic, and they are, but they are
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Governor Jay Inslee represents a heck of a lot of what I believe in. I’m v. proud to be represented by him. On the other hand, if he did something
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1. I suppose because I'm an evolutionary biology who has worked on emerging infectious diseases for 20 years, a number of people are asking me whether we should expect the
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In a thread yesterday, I lapsed into the unhelpful shorthand of "one-dose" vs. "two-dose" plans for vaccine rollout.*Everyone* I know wants to vaccinate every willing American twice. So I'd suggest
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For a host of reasons I have been very skeptical of switching vaccination protocols midstream to a single vaccination approach with later followup. @Bob_Wachter is a very thoughtful doctor and
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