Time for me to crawl to the cross and admit DEFEAT on the Ethereum L2 vs. Bitcoin LN bet I made vs. @RyanTheGentry & @giacomozucco in September last year.

Bet amount: 2x$1000

Data thread & how I lost šŸ‘‡ https://twitter.com/RyanTheGentry/status/1301526001252474883
Some background context--

Me: "Ethereum L2s will outrun LN so fast it's not even funny."

Ryan: "You're imagining L2 solutions that don't exist will succeed much faster than LN has. Why?

Giacomo: "Can I pile in on that?"
Some background context--Me: "Ethereum L2s will outrun LN so fast it's not even funny."Ryan: "You're imagining L2 solutions that don't exist will succeed much faster than LN has. Why?Giacomo: "Can I pile in on that?"
Some background context--Me: "Ethereum L2s will outrun LN so fast it's not even funny."Ryan: "You're imagining L2 solutions that don't exist will succeed much faster than LN has. Why?Giacomo: "Can I pile in on that?"
Some background context--Me: "Ethereum L2s will outrun LN so fast it's not even funny."Ryan: "You're imagining L2 solutions that don't exist will succeed much faster than LN has. Why?Giacomo: "Can I pile in on that?"
We finally decided that we would compare the following TVL in $ value:

Bitcoin: LN public channels
Ethereum: rollups/state-channels/plasma

We'd exclude: fiat-backed tokens (USDT, USDC, GUSD, TUSD, BUSD etc.)
When we made the bet, these were the following stats:

Bitcoin LN public channels: ~$12m
Ethereum rollups/etc: ~$19m (99% @loopringorg)

In order for my "Ethereum L2s will outrun LN so fast it's not even funny" prediction to hold, it was decided I'd need to win by 10x (~$120m?).
I've run the numbers & here are the most recent Ethereum stats (was pretty hard, forgive errors):

Ethereum mainnet state channels

Connext - $483k ( https://etherscan.io/address/0xe3cF69b86F274a14B87946bf641f11Ac837f4492)
Kchannels - $2k ( https://etherscan.io/address/0xbd9425Dd654DBb1E1804430df5723c279A0A86b7, https://etherscan.io/address/0x1944517aa5c7d02731a7efaa1023d5c998996461)
Raiden - $415 ( https://explorer.raiden.network/tokens/0x6B175474E89094C44Da98b954EedeAC495271d0F)
Contract Address 0x1944517aa5c7d02731a7efaa1023d5c998996461 | Etherscan

The Contract Address 0x1944517aa5c7d02731a7efaa1023d5c998996461 page allows users to view the source code, transactions, balances, and analytics for the contract address. Users can also interact and...

https://etherscan.io/address/0xe3cF69b86F274a14B87946bf641f11Ac837f4492
Ethereum ZK-rollups

Aztec - $291k ( https://etherscan.io/address/0x737901bea3eeb88459df9ef1be8ff3ae1b42a2ba)
zkSync - $7.6m ( https://etherscan.io/address/0xabea9132b05a70803a4e85094fd0e1800777fbef)
Loopring - $164m ( https://etherscan.io/address/0x674bdf20a0f284d710bc40872100128e2d66bd3f)
Loopring: Exchange v2 Deposit | 0x674bdf20a0f284d710bc40872100128e2d66bd3f

The Contract Address 0x674bdf20a0f284d710bc40872100128e2d66bd3f page allows users to view the source code, transactions, balances, and analytics for the contract address. Users can also interact and...

https://etherscan.io/address/0x737901bea3eeb88459df9ef1be8ff3ae1b42a2ba
Ethereum optimistic rollups

Synthetix L2 Bridge (Optimism) - $78m ( https://etherscan.io/address/0x045e507925d2e05D114534D0810a1abD94aca8d6)
Synthetix: L2 Bridge | 0x045e507925d2e05D114534D0810a1abD94aca8d6

The Contract Address 0x045e507925d2e05D114534D0810a1abD94aca8d6 page allows users to view the source code, transactions, balances, and analytics for the contract address. Users can also interact and...

https://etherscan.io/address/0x045e507925d2e05D114534D0810a1abD94aca8d6
Ethereum plasma

Polygon (Matic Plasma) - $22m ( https://etherscan.io/address/0x401F6c983eA34274ec46f84D70b31C151321188b)
Leverj Gluon - $5.9m ( https://etherscan.io/address/0x75ACe7a086eA0FB1a79e43Cc6331Ad053d8C67cB, https://etherscan.io/address/0xDA88EfA53c85Afa30564bb651A2E76b99a232082)
OMG Network - $3m ( https://etherscan.io/address/0x070cb1270a4b2ba53c81cef89d0fd584ed4f430b, https://etherscan.io/address/0x3eed23ea148d356a72ca695dbce2fceb40a32ce0)
OMG Network V1: ETH Vault | 0x3eed23ea148d356a72ca695dbce2fceb40a32ce0

The Contract Address 0x3eed23ea148d356a72ca695dbce2fceb40a32ce0 page allows users to view the source code, transactions, balances, and analytics for the contract address. Users can also interact and...

https://etherscan.io/address/0x401F6c983eA34274ec46f84D70b31C151321188b
Ethereum validium

DeversiFi - $15m ( https://etherscan.io/address/0x5d22045daceab03b158031ecb7d9d06fad24609b, https://etherscan.io/address/0xaf8ae6955d07776ab690e565ba6fbc79b8de3a5d)
dYdX - $41m ( https://etherscan.io/address/0x09403fd14510f8196f7879ef514827cd76960b5d)
dYdX: Perpetual Proxy | 0x09403fd14510f8196f7879ef514827cd76960b5d

The Contract Address 0x09403fd14510f8196f7879ef514827cd76960b5d page allows users to view the source code, transactions, balances, and analytics for the contract address. Users can also interact and...

https://etherscan.io/address/0x5d22045daceab03b158031ecb7d9d06fad24609b
Across these Ethereum solutions we find approximately $339m vs. Bitcoin LN's original $12m (28x).

But wait! After we filter out all fiat-backed tokens ($16.2m), the $339m figure is closer to $323m (27x).

(Ok, that didn't make that much of a difference šŸ¤·ā€ā™‚ļø).
But there's more!

Although https://ethereum.org/en/developers/docs/layer-2-scaling/ considers these plasmas and validiums as "L2", us bitcoiners (me, Ryan & Giacomo at least) don't really agree with that def (data availability comes with trust guarantees).

So we're down from $323m to a measly $242m (20x).
Layer 2 scaling | ethereum.org

An introduction to the different scaling options currently being developed by the Ethereum community.

https://ethereum.org/en/developers/docs/layer-2-scaling/
We could go further and discredit even more of these L2s. We can point out that @optimismPBC currently runs with hard safety precautions and discredit that as a "real L2"! Even @zksync has a (delayed) opt-out upgrade mechanism.

But we don't need to go that far to see why I lost.
We could go further and discredit even more of these L2s. We can point out that @optimismPBC currently runs with hard safety precautions and discredit that as a "real L2"! Even @zksync has a (delayed) opt-out upgrade mechanism.But we don't need to go that far to see why I lost.
We could go further and discredit even more of these L2s. We can point out that @optimismPBC currently runs with hard safety precautions and discredit that as a "real L2"! Even @zksync has a (delayed) opt-out upgrade mechanism.But we don't need to go that far to see why I lost.
While the BTC in public LN channels has stayed almost entirely static between Sep 3-Mar 3 (1063 BTC -> 1108 BTC, now 1159 BTC), the $-value of BTC increased by almost +400%!

That $12m had turned into $56m by March 3.

So to 10x that, I'd need to show $560m in Ethereum L2s...
This is first bet I've lost on CT, and Twitter bets are a serious matter to me. I can think of nothing more humiliating than not paying one's dues.

So with that, congratulations both @RyanTheGentry & @giacomozucco!

Post your LN invoices below, and you'll receive $1000 each!
Please set the invoice amount to 0.018201 BTC ($1000) and I'll send it right away (assuming no complications with the Lightning Network).
@RyanTheGentry, could you please make a smaller invoice? I have a bunch of LN wallets on my Android phone I'd like to get an opportunity to clear out. One has 581,068 sats in it we can start with but I just remembered I can't make partial invoice payments. https://twitter.com/RyanTheGentry/status/1376288126239391744
I don't expect we can send the full amount of 581,068 sats since we need to account for fees, I'm not sure what the maximum sendable amount is over the route I'll end up have to use. Should 99.5% of the amount work (0.5% fee) you think? Try with 578,162 sats please šŸ™.
Hi @RyanTheGentry, please try the smaller amount as per the tweet above. My LN wallet could not pay your invoice I'm afraid (fees). https://twitter.com/RyanTheGentry/status/1376292298812710912?s=19
Sorry @RyanTheGentry, I am an idiot. The channel balance is actually just 544k sats, rest was onchain. I just looked up the channel info and it looks like the maximum sendable amount is 519,559 sats (4.8% fee? not sure why šŸ¤·ā€ā™‚ļø) cc: @acinq_co https://twitter.com/RyanTheGentry/status/1376293912566988803?s=19
Sorry @RyanTheGentry, I am an idiot. The channel balance is actually just 544k sats, rest was onchain. I just looked up the channel info and it looks like the maximum sendable amount is 519,559 sats (4.8% fee? not sure why ) cc: @acinq_co https://twitter.com/RyanTheGentry/status/1376293912566988803?s=19
Sorry @RyanTheGentry, I am an idiot. The channel balance is actually just 544k sats, rest was onchain. I just looked up the channel info and it looks like the maximum sendable amount is 519,559 sats (4.8% fee? not sure why ) cc: @acinq_co https://twitter.com/RyanTheGentry/status/1376293912566988803?s=19
Not trying to be funny but I tried consolidating my sats, I got an iPhone for @joinClubhouse & installed @Breez_Tech since I know it's one of the few wallets that solve inbound liquidity for you (except mb @PhoenixWallet? but no iOS) and then this happened https://twitter.com/RyanTheGentry/status/1376297543706013700?s=19
ā˜ļøThis was a response to this tweet. Are you sure you can't just make an invoice for 519,559 sats real quick? I'm not trying to frustrate you on purpose šŸ¤
I actually did exactly that. Not sure why it's not working. https://twitter.com/RyanTheGentry/status/1376300616885149699?s=19
Ok, Iā€™ll wait a few minutes. I thought the issue might be that @Breez_Tech only exists as an alpha ā€podcasting appā€ (?) on iOS, but the problem might aswell be on @acinq_coā€™s side (it was a long time since I set up that channels). Retrying soon. https://twitter.com/ryanthegentry/status/1376302746215796739
Ok, Iā€™ll wait a few minutes. I thought the issue might be that @Breez_Tech only exists as an alpha ā€podcasting appā€ (?) on iOS, but the problem might aswell be on @acinq_coā€™s side (it was a long time since I set up that channels). Retrying soon. https://twitter.com/ryanthegentry/status/1376302746215796739
Ok, Iā€™ll wait a few minutes. I thought the issue might be that @Breez_Tech only exists as an alpha ā€podcasting appā€ (?) on iOS, but the problem might aswell be on @acinq_coā€™s side (it was a long time since I set up that channels). Retrying soon. https://twitter.com/ryanthegentry/status/1376302746215796739
I tried it now and atleast I only got one error this time. Seems like there just isn't a route? I think I'll just try closing the channel on @acinq_co and reopen it since it's an old one, unless someone has another suggestion (using @bluewalletio on the iPhone instead maybe?).
Here's the error expanded btw.
@RyanTheGentry can't we try just by you making a smaller invoice (519559 sats)? Maybe that's easier than consolidating this input on my end since I seem to struggle with it, maybe I have a route to you but not me. I'll consolidate the rest in the meantime. https://twitter.com/ercwl/status/1376301482484531200?s=19
I tried to consolidate on @bluewalletio on the iPhone per this recommendation instead but that didn't work either. Must be some issue with the @acinq_co wallet channel on the Android. I'm closing it and reopening it. https://twitter.com/ankurfr/status/1376310470496292865?s=19
I think I was able to negotiate a cooperative close on Eclair so I don't need to force-close the channel (more expensive), will just need to pay some onchain fees and wait for a few blocks and we should be good to go. Will consolidate the other wallets in the meantime.
Will do! https://twitter.com/RyanTheGentry/status/1376313624415899652?s=19
I'm now trying to consolidate my balance from BLW ("Anton's Lightning Wallet"). This channel was set up just a few months ago and the payment to @Breez_Tech just isn't coming through. Anyone have a clue what the issue might be? It's not just Eclair... https://twitter.com/serg_tikhomirov/status/1376316288184762378?s=19
What? I was sending 215k sats (as per the "can send" amount on the channel info page), even though the channel has 231k sats. Anyone know why trying to send 93% of the channel balance is too much? What's with these fees? $9 fee for a $119 payment not enough on LN?
Was able to send 200k of my 231k sats in the end by successively decreasing the sats trying to send. Not sure what the issue was here or why needed to pay so much. Isn't 1k msat = 1 sat (debug info)? 0.05% routing also doesn't explain it. @acinq_co / @Breez_Tech connectivity :/
Was able to send 200k of my 231k sats in the end by successively decreasing the sats trying to send. Not sure what the issue was here or why needed to pay so much. Isn't 1k msat = 1 sat (debug info)? 0.05% routing also doesn't explain it. @acinq_co / @Breez_Tech connectivity :/
Was able to send 200k of my 231k sats in the end by successively decreasing the sats trying to send. Not sure what the issue was here or why needed to pay so much. Isn't 1k msat = 1 sat (debug info)? 0.05% routing also doesn't explain it. @acinq_co / @Breez_Tech connectivity :/
Was able to send 200k of my 231k sats in the end by successively decreasing the sats trying to send. Not sure what the issue was here or why needed to pay so much. Isn't 1k msat = 1 sat (debug info)? 0.05% routing also doesn't explain it. @acinq_co / @Breez_Tech connectivity :/
So only ~86% was sendable ($110 of $127).
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