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Seeing as peeps are asking what UK shitcos I own to monetize this trend, here's one I'll throw out there: $CARD.LN. It's been written up in the public domain - see this excellent blog post: https://dkvalue.blogspot.com/2021/02/card-factory-be-greedy-when-others-are.html
basically the point is its at ~4.5x pre-COVID EPS... https://twitter.com/puppyeh1/status/1371769201346539521
basically the point is its at ~4.5x pre-COVID EPS... https://twitter.com/puppyeh1/status/1371769201346539521
...w/ a ton of leverage, I know. but 80% of weddings got cancelled in the UK last yr; 70% of card purchases are discretionary around events; and two of their biggest comp went bust during COVID and closed a bunch of their stores...
...so basically you have a hyper-levered play on eventing/gifting, trading at a v low multiple of (probably) too-low earnings over the next 1-2yrs. At 10-12x P/E and some earnings improvement the stock is near-triple. Even at 10x P/E and just pre-COVID erns its a near double...
and since its a div stock (UK retail!) and paid out ~90% historically if it simply regains pre-COVID earnings/FCF (which was declining but basically a 
machine for many yrs) its on a ~20%+ yield on current...and of course I think earnings will be BETTER than pre-COVID...
machine for many yrs) its on a ~20%+ yield on current...and of course I think earnings will be BETTER than pre-COVID...
...remember also that its a levered shitco w/ perceived solvency risk (which I obvi disagree with). So as vaccination progresses, stores reopen, ppl realize its just a levered reopening play w/out B/K risk, it should regain 100p...BEFORE the (hoped-for) earnings inflection
Obviously, dilution risk is real here near-term (which i still think is taken positively as removed B/K totally from the table). But this is the kind of thing I'm talking about in UK stocks.
Always DYODD, and clearly, I am long (and could well be wrong). GLTA!
Always DYODD, and clearly, I am long (and could well be wrong). GLTA!
