1. There's 2 important upcoming dates so far as a withdrawal deadline. One is May 1. The other is an invisible date after which it will be "logistically unfeasible" to withdraw by May absent earlier action. We are inching dangerously close to that date & its severe consequences .

2. Policy reviews are important but the world doesn't stop spinning while they occur nor do the opportunity costs. The ground consequences of unilaterally passing May 1 are clear. But there is another one: he will then have to pick what is labeled an "arbitrary" time to leave.

3. Coercion is an important tool of diplomacy. But enshrined in arguments that US troops are necessary to achieve a political settlement is the normalization of US military intervention as a facet of peaceful "diplomacy" when it is just the opposite. We don't get to have both.

4. The Biden admin is likely exploring ways to renegotiate with the Taliban. But the direct concessions & rapid regional diplomacy required to create the possibility that the Taliban agrees to an extension would necessitate a 180 in the institutional culture of the Biden team.

5. This is a sprint not a marathon. The trajectory that the Biden team finds itself on right now is highly likely to result in sabotaging a May 1 withdrawal without a new understanding with the Taliban. Then he will be trapped. Therein lies the risk of abandoning May 1.