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Some preliminary thoughts on the idea of the #Falcons picking a QB in this year's draft:
First off, Positional Value. There are many ways to skin this cat, but it should be clear to everyone that QB is the most valuable position in the NFL and hence in the draft.
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Some preliminary thoughts on the idea of the #Falcons picking a QB in this year's draft:
First off, Positional Value. There are many ways to skin this cat, but it should be clear to everyone that QB is the most valuable position in the NFL and hence in the draft.
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If we wanna put a number to it, PFF's WAR metric shows us just how much bigger the upside is for hitting on a QB.
There's no denying that getting a good QB is the most important task a Front Office has.
https://www.pff.com/news/draft-why-positional-value-matters-in-the-nfl-draft
There's no denying that getting a good QB is the most important task a Front Office has.
https://www.pff.com/news/draft-why-positional-value-matters-in-the-nfl-draft
Second, but what about Matt Ryan?
Well, the thing is, once can appreciate, stan and cheer for Matt Ryan *and* still wish the Falcons to be good after he is gone. Those are not mutually exclusive.
Well, the thing is, once can appreciate, stan and cheer for Matt Ryan *and* still wish the Falcons to be good after he is gone. Those are not mutually exclusive.
Having Ryan is actually ideal for the #QBat4 idea. If Ryan stays, he can mentor the young kid. If Ryan blossoms in the new Smith scheme, the Falcons can be competitive without worrying about falling out of range of draftable QB starters in 2022.
If Ryan declines, you can trade him for assets for the new era.
But what about earlier? Can't we trade Ryan this offseason? Or how about now, before the draft?
But what about earlier? Can't we trade Ryan this offseason? Or how about now, before the draft?
I am more skeptical of this scenario. Bottom line is, it depends on how Fontenot evaluates this draft class. Which brings us to the draft scenarios.
Bid Picture: Trey Lance and Zach Wilson are probably the market inefficiency this year. Josh Allen's ascent has some teams thinking that his upside splash play ceiling was the signal that should have been trusted all along in his eval, and you can coach the negatives out.
Which probably leads to Lance and Wilson being a tad higher rated this year than they normally would have been. Consider that both guys have already seen (ridiculous) Mahomes comps, who went #10, while those guys are talked about in the Top 5 range.
So the value play from that perspective is Fields. In any "normal" draft, he would probably be QB2. If a smart FO wants to leverage the league narratives against its competition, it will let others gamble on the rawness of Lance and Wilson,....
...figuring that probably one, if not both of them will not reach their ceiling.
So what's the play at 4 then?
It really depends on how much Fontenot likes *his* guy in that group.
So what's the play at 4 then?
It really depends on how much Fontenot likes *his* guy in that group.
One thing that would make me nervous, is that Fontenot Telescos it: Being okay with whatever is "left at 4" would seem like a hollow process to address the most important position on the roster.
And if it's a #QBat4, Fontenot will certainly say that he was their guy all along, and that the draft simply fell that way and yada yada yada but I'd be really skeptical of that.
As a sidenote, I think it's extremely likely that all four picks at the top will be QBs. Miami is basically on the fence of taking one themselves and they will find suitors for teams wanting to jump the Falcons.
Which brings us back to the conviction of your eval, if your in TF's shoes. If you have your eyes set on a guy, waiting for him to be there at 4 is a very comfortable, but risky approach.
In some sense, the fact that there a four good QBs and TF is *certain* to get on of them actually works against him: Being complacent here can still lead to good results, of course, lucky breaks happen and the draft is a crapshoot. But the process would be questionable.
Which leads me to the notion of trading up for a QB. If Fontenot and Smith know what their guy is, it'd be stupid to let the market dictate on whether you will get him or not. Jumping from #4 to #2 is probably not that hard to achieve.
Jumping to #3 will be tougher. If it goes Lawrence-Wilson, some of the QB needy teams will still have Fields rated so high that they will move up more spots and pay a higher price for MIA. TF can't be competitive in that environment, coming only from #4.
Same if it goes Lawrence-Fields. The most conceptually sound process IMO would be for the Falcons to trade to #2 and get their guy, be it Fields, Wilson or maybe even Lawrence, if something crazy happens.
Ist it *possible* to play it cool, and get your QB2 at #4? Sure. But banking on it would be pretty bold.
Is it *possible* their guy is Lance and they think he's there at #4 for sure? Sure. But banking on it would be pretty bold.
Is it *possible* their guy is Lance and they think he's there at #4 for sure? Sure. But banking on it would be pretty bold.
I think we should consider the possibility of an Uptrade much more than we have up until now. First Round QBs that were taken *without* an uptrade are famously devoid of success stories. Settling for a guy cause he's there is not a good process.
Of course trading up doesn't guarantee success either, nothing in the draft world does. But at least give it a shot to get the guy you are convinced in. If your not convinced in a guy, maybe it's best to trade down.
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