1/ Since $BNB is now TOP 3, maybe its good time to post my reflections

Why Binance CeDeFi (oh god such a dumb term, cant believe I am using it) ecosystem exceeded my expectations and is it sustainable? Should I FOMO in now or just focus on other things? https://twitter.com/Fiskantes/status/1359652937560121344?s=20

2/ Binance the CEX is powerhouse, and everyone now talks about #BSC .

But DYK there are 2 @binance chains?

Binance Chain which was first and now popular Binance Smart Chain.

Branding is confusing af but okay, lets go deeper:

3/ Binance chain (I think its POA), uses @cosmos SDK and @tendermint_team ...not much happens there but dont be fast to dissmiss it completely: @thorchain_org was bootstrapped via it and it actually runs on it.

In the long run, it could become a dominant Cosmos zone but idk.

4/ Binance Smart Chain is an #Ethereum fork (but with POA) where all the fun is right now, proving that EVM is the JavaScript of Finance.

There was too much fee pressure on Ethereum, and the BSC now acts as a valve to lead some of that pressure away via path of least resistance

5/ First time I tried BSC was summer last year and it was a mess. I was using it with a HW wallet and Metamask and I thought my money are gone at least 3 times.

6/ Trying it now I see the UX is vastly improved. At least the biggest apps like @PancakeSwap dont give me constant glitches, but am afraid to venture forth into the wilderness.

(PancakeSwap itself is hard to ignore since it flipped @Uniswap volume) https://twitter.com/Rewkang/status/1362684628058869766?s=20

7/ BSC = EVM, it can use all the Ethereum dev tooling available, so for fast and cheap experimentation, easy scaling and retail marketing power, its a viable alternative for the short term.

8/ Imo Eth devs suffering from high gas (kek) can easily experiment there and what they build can be easily moved to Ethereum as well.

I'd also advice some Eth DeFi projects expanding (but never moving entirely) onto #BSC , at least for now, until better options are available.

9/ However as a CPU (Crypto Power User) I am not comfortable with having bigger capital on BSC and not sure if I ever will be. Proof of Authority is not why I am here in #crypto.

10/ While I frequently use smart contracts with admin keys, I am not ok with by default admin key on the base layer. Credible neutrality is valuable to me.

So bulk of my capital stays on permissionless credibly neutral layers.

11/ In the long run I also dont think what #BSC is doing is sustainable. Copying at throwing money at stuff only takes you so far, while skewing the blockchain trilemma towards centralization only takes you so far. We need innovation and we need it without permission.

12/ I also think at one point BSC will hit its limits like Ethereum did, with too many DEXes, too many arbitrage opportunities causing a cancerous growth, killing the host.

This can happen sooner than people expect, it took years on Ethereum, but

13/ This could backfire differently than in Ethereum though. POA runners will be forced to increase gas limit and bloat instead to remain cheap, because thats what they promised to users. Instead of developing a healthy fee market.

14/ But in the short to mid term, Binance will form a vast ecosystem, with its CEX in the middle, EVM friendly BSC around it and maybeee Binance Chain lurking in the shadows, waiting for Cosmos ecosystem to mature to copy its features as well.

15/ Yes. Copying is winning strategy. While me and many others were masturbating about Polkadot, Solana and Cosmos, and their huge tech. improvements, Binance just copied EVM.

16/ And with it, they copied dev tooling, which is arguably the single one thing Ethereum had years of moat in vs competition. Building great dev environment is hard. Binance cleverly bypassed it. https://twitter.com/Fiskantes/status/1337303724205682688?s=20

17/ Many will cry foul in face of copying, but thats competition in open source environment. It puts pressure on innovators and gives advantage to big entities who can throw money at stuff.

Ofc the resulting negative externality is that many projects will shy away from FOSS

18/ What about $BNB? I sold most of it early, missing on gainzzz. I saw @binance the CEX changing the burn rules multiple times and didnt want to be a sucker in someone elses insider game. https://twitter.com/Fiskantes/status/1359641654232285184?s=20

19/ But with this trade, I gave up the bet on upside optionality of $BNB becoming a reserve asset of Binance "CeDeFi" ecosystem. I didnt see it. Its not a PoS, you can't run a validator unless you are @cz_binance fren. You can't earn those juicy fees without permission.

20/ But if BNB is now pumped into top 3, reflexivity can kick in. Binance will have more capital to kickstart the ecosystem, liquidity will increase, more users will enter.

In this market you dont have to overthink it. In retrospect, I should have bet on this guy, right?

21/ Nope, that would mean I should probably also bet on Tron, resurrecting of $NEO (remember Flamingo? Me neither), and there is only so much you can justify as a forward thinking investor.

Dont be afraid to change your thesis, but dont stray away from it.

22/ But BNB is different. I had a big position in BNB before, in accord with my thesis. I just lost conviction along the way. I am fine with missing moves (cant catch em all) but I believe that here I didnt have to miss it, thus I give this so much reflection.

23/ Winners come and go, and I thought Binance is already too big to innovate fast, that they are too busy maintaining their core biz. Early experience with half baked Binance Chain and clunky BSC confirmed my bias. I underestimated it.

24/ I'd say that actionable takeaway for my investing is to look for projects that can capitalize on having access to this new ecosystem, while maintaining their sovereignty from it.

I'll also play a bit in their low gas environment, but will keep bulk of money elsewhere.

25/ But most of my attention will be spent elsewhere, there are more exciting and stimulating things happening elsewhere in crypto, with much higher upside, coming to those who are patient.

There is no real innovation here, just a well executed "business as usual".