‘On the political axis the median voter sits somewhere in the top left quadrant, neither economically nor socially liberal, with culturally conservative and redistributive views.... Then there are the genuine liberals, of whom there are about 17 in ‘ https://unherd.com/2021/02/the-fantasy-of-english-freedom/

Change UK, or as I like to call them, the CUK’s, the 21stC political equivalent of BETAMAX, styled themselves as ‘centrists’ but positioned themselves as far away from the median voter as was practically possible. You wont believe what happened next!

But this is the thing, the type of ppl who tend to think of themselves as ‘centrist’ are not actually centrist at all. The median voter is a lot more culturally conservative than they are.

Right-lib policy wonks mock the median voter by describing their politics as ‘we love our NHS, hang the pedo’s.’ But ultimately you don't win elections without appealing to the median voter, New Labour understood this, the Labour party of 2021 however? Im not so sure at times

A true ‘centrist’ wouldnt just be centre-left re politics he would prob be an immig restrictionist too (to some degree,) for instance. But how many ppl in are immigration restrictionists? If there are any they keep quiet lest Jonathon Portes hounds them aggressively on Twitter

The Labour party is probably incapable of becoming ‘centrist’ again bc if they did a huge chunk of their members/activists/wider lib-left clerisy would react with howls of outrage that they were pandering to racists/fascists & other such hyperbolic nonsense & they would back down

Bc becoming ‘centrist’ again doesnt just mean moving to the ‘centre’ on economics but also to the ‘centre’ on the lib-auth part of the political axis too.

This was easier to do in 1997 bc the demographics of the country were different. If you read your Paula Surridge & your Rob Ford you will know that the university educated tend to differ from the non-uni educated in their social/cultural values.

& that in 1997 there were a great deal more school leavers in the population than university-educated, whereas today, in 2021, thats less the case. Appealing to both groups simultaneously is much more difficult than the challenge Blair faced in 1997 (Blair had Scotland too.)

Paula Surridge explains it all here (if the Labour party had any sense they would hire her)

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/dec/06/difficult-truth-labour-social-conservatives

So I realise that Matt Goodwin isnt popular on Twitter, espesh in Labour-leaning circles, but when he says that its easier for the Tories to capture the centre-ground than , bc its easier for the Tories to move left on economics than for to move right in culture, he’s right.

Without addressing this issue (& I doubt Labour will be able to address this issue) & without Scotland, I honestly cannot see the Labour party in government again for a long, long time https://twitter.com/jamesrdennison/status/1351177842864873472?s=21

Which isn't good. Not just for the Labour party but also for Tory voters. Its likely to make the Tory party complacent & take certain voters for granted the longer that this situation continues.

If you want a handy over-view of how changing demographics since 1997 have made it harder for the Labour party to be truly ‘centrist’ then I recommend this thread by Rob Ford & also his book ‘Brexitland’ https://twitter.com/robfordmancs/status/1316653196564201472?s=21