Ok. Opening up, Full disclosure, I am in the solar industry. I have built about $1.5B of wind, and I spent 5 years doing transmission development in ERCOT.
My transmission experience made me open to any technology that works.

1/

The ERCOT grid is a very complex beast. It can’t call on other grids for support (but that is a bit overrated as typically when you need power so does your adjacent region, but that’s later).

2/

The Texas market consists of Generators, Transmission Owners (incl Distribution), Retail Providers (who you pay for power), and ERCOT that manages all those.

This is a similar setup that you’d see in any region (SPP, MISO, PJM, CAISO).

3/

ERCOT is a 501c3 nonprofit that is charged with managing the market, but above all, reliability (keeping the lights on). In my experience some of the smartest people I’ve ever met work there. Wish I could name some of them because they’re absolutely brilliant.

4/

Transmission and Distribution is regulated. They get a guaranteed rate of return ~10% for every dollar of capital they spend to keep the system reliable. So they always want to build new projects.
Distribution is where most outages are because 1) there’s so much of it and 2)
5/

2) they’re smaller lines and substations. So trees, squirrels, and snakes can cause an outage.

Transmission is 69kV and up.

6/

Generators in Texas and any market since FERC order 888 are independent power producers. Every plant is its own company. So a single gas plant is looking at its own profit and loss statement and has its own financiers.

This means that upgrades are paid by the specific owner.
7/

Retail guys, municipalities, and cooperatives are the guys who buy power wholesale and sell it to the end user (residentials, commercials, industrials).

Retail outside of municipal or cooperative areas can shop for a retail provider.
8/

Those retail providers are bidding on a very low margin and buying at day ahead and spot prices heavily. So they’re going to be the biggest losers but had the least to do with everything in all this.

9/

Getting really in the weeds but I’m getting there.
10/

So...every year power plants take outages to do maintenance. The best time of year to do so is Feb-April. That’s because most cold weather events in TX are handled with natural gas and propane heat. Not electricity. My February bill every year is one of my lowest.

11/

This year, ~20,000MW of (gas and coal) Power plants requested an outage. ERCOT runs an outage study looking at demand and other available resources, and then says yes. (They make sure all the plants in Houston aren’t out for example because that would jack up Houston rates).
12/

Last week, we look at the forecast and see some cold coming. Everyone goes and buys milk and eggs. ERCOT calls the 20,000MW and says “can y’all come back on?”
Some say yes (5000?). Rest can’t. Once you start a major outage you can’t get back up in a month. Much less a week.
13/

If those plants could be back up they would’ve because they want to make big money.
So, Feb 11th, we go to bed, wake up to a coating of ice. This ice is thick and persistent.
Next day, sun is out, roads are good. Maybe we’re through the worst?

14/

Wind farms have some icing issues on the 12th but they’re back up and spinning after a few hours.

Solar panels in Texas tilt so they tilted away from the sideways-blowing ice and back to the sun in the morning and generated well thereafter (little yellow bumps).

15/

Then Feb 14, snow.

Then the temps drop to single digits.

On the night of the 15th, between midnight and 3 am, 8000MW of gas, 1200MW of Nukes, and 2000MW of coal trip off the grid. Culprits are frozen gas pipelines and water for steam. (Note the Big gas drops)

16/

Steam is still how we turn turbines in plants that burn stuff. Gas plants burn gas, coal plants burn powdered coal, nukes use the radiation to heat the rod then the water. The steam turns the wheel where the hamster would go and that turns the gyros.

17/

So no water through the pipe, no steam. No gas no gas to heat that water.

That trip caused a lot of the outages and most of the outrage.

18/

ERCOT has 2 connections for more power. Mexico which is a buyer of our cheaper power and Oklahoma (that sucks) that was also having rolling outages due to this winter storm.
These are DC ties. That can go either way.
Total, I believe there’s less than 1000MW of ties.
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So ERCOT’s only options in these situations is:
1) cut off a big chunk of the customers.
2) let the whole system trip and take months to get back to normal.

So they disconnect grandma.

It sucks. But it’s their only hope.
20/

Thing about the outages, they’re not spread out because there are areas that have a weaker system than others. I never lost power. My poor parents have been off a lot and my dad is piiiiissed!
This is a distribution thing and it’s a lag between the growth and the system.
21/

Almost done. So, what the fix?

Depends. Is it worth it to winterize a plant?

Cost of winterization = X

Benefit = $9000/MWh x hours we’ve had this pricing (80?) x MW at the plant

Is Benefit > Cost???

22/

Last thing. In 2011. We had a bad winter but it was followed by a drought and the worst summer ever. Power plants didn’t have water in their lakes to run the plant. 100 days over 100°.
The grid focused on that issue instead of the cold.

So, I guess we’ll see how this goes.
23/

Questions?