Our first real world data on vaccine effectiveness in the US is here, complements of the Mayo Clinic.
Spoiler alert: it is good!
It's not a randomized trial, of course;
and the cohort matching can't be perfect.
But it's our US version of the Israel data.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.15.21251623v1.full.pdf
A major issue, duly noted by the authors, is that so many of those vaccinated by the time of the study are HCWs (high exposure) or nursing home residents (that+frailty). An 85 yr old diabetic man in a nursing home is just not the same as an 85 yr old diabetic man 2 houses over.
So, not very worrisome that the ICU data did not show substantial effect. I'll take 2 ICU visits and no deaths out of 191 cases followed in the vax group given the cohort. Ditto the 60% reduction in 14d hospitalization rate.
Not out of line w/ the trial data on healthier ppl.
Also noted: this is ALL infections, including asymptomatic.
That pretties up the 88.7% efficacy. Based on trial data, these vaccines do better at preventing symptomatic infections than all infections.
All in all: confirmation that the mRNA RCT data carries into the real world.
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