This is an awesome question. (Incoming big thread!)

The vaccine studies looked for symptoms of COVID. So it was easy to say from the trials that the vaccines prevented symptoms & hospitalizations. They didn’t directly test for asymptomatic spread. So we couldn’t say for sure. 1/ https://twitter.com/darrenczarnecki/status/1362446809138819077

Now, if you’re not getting sick, and your immune system is primed to attack the asshole protein & destroy the virus quickly, logically you’d expect to spread the virus ‘less’ or ‘not at all’. But until you have evidence of that, you can’t say for sure. 2/

The Moderna trials tested everyone at the time of their 2nd dose. People who got the vaccine were less likely to have asymptomatic COVID. So that’s some evidence the vaccines also prevent getting asymptomatic COVID, not just symptoms. 3/

Data from Israel, where there’s been more vaccination, is lending more evidence that the vaccines decrease the spread of the virus. So we’re gathering a growing body of evidence that says there’s less spread if you get the vaccine. That’s what we expected but couldn’t prove. 4/

BUT, less spread doesn’t necessarily mean no spread.

As an INDIVIDUAL, if you’re vaccinated, you ‘might’ still spread the virus, just much less than if you’re unvaccinated. Which is why masking is still helpful.

The real benefits of vaccination are at the POPULATION level. 5/

If everyone (or most people) are vaccinated, then EVERYONE is spreading the virus less. Less viral spread, means cases drop even among unvaccinated people. Fewer cases means things can open up.

It’s not about the individual. It’s about the population. 6/

Vaccinating individuals is not the exit strategy.

Vaccinating a society is the exit strategy for the pandemic.

It benefits me if my neighbours are vaccinated. If their neighbours are vaccinated. If the parents of my kids’ classmates are vaccinated.

This is a group project. 7/

Remember, the vaccines aren’t 100% effective (though seem to stop almost all serious illness, even among variants). Effectiveness is likely lower in elderly & immunocompromised. The vaccine is not approved for kids yet.

We protect them by reducing spread at a POPULATION level.8/

Variants rise with uncontrolled spread of the virus. Vaccination at a POPULATION level prevents that from happening, because there’s less virus floating around.

Even if you don’t get very sick, you could be the body that makes a variant that escapes the vaccine for everyone. 9/

In sum: vaccinating YOU will prevent you from getting sick & probably make it less likely you spread the virus.

Vaccinating EVERYONE should massively decrease viral spread, protect those the vaccines are less effective for, and stop variants from emerging. 10/

COVID-19 vaccination is not about what YOU can do when you’re vaccinated. It’s about what WE can ALL do once enough of us are.

It’s about making sure others don’t get sick. About preventing variants.

Vaccination is our exit strategy. And it only works as a team project. /fin