𝒢𝒲 𝟤𝟧 𝒞𝒶𝓅𝓉𝒶𝒾𝓃𝒸𝓎 𝒯𝒽𝓇𝑒𝒶𝒹

Time for another captaincy thread / research as I am in a bit of a quandary... as I assume many other managers are.

Who to captain for #GW25?

Patrick Bamford
Danny Ings
Raphinha

With DGW matchups for Leeds & Southampton, the #FPL twitter-sphere certainly seems to be keying in on these 3 assets for the . Of course, Bruno vs. Newcastle is not a bad shout either but for this thread, I'll be looking at the aforementioned Leeds duo and the Saints man.

In this tweet, you can see that Raph and Bamford's xG, xA, etc. and actual G+A stats are better than Ings over the last # of games. (worth noting Raphinha actually has 2 goals and 4 assists over the last 5 games) (sorted by XG+A90) from http://understat.com 

Looking at the last 5 games (360 mins min), Bamford is 11th overall (0.69) and Raph 18th (0.58) for xG+A90. Ings is 21st (0.55). They're not near the likes of Gundo, Sterling, Bruno (0.70), Salah or even Werner but considering they have a DGW, they are not far off.

It's clear that the Leeds boys are going to get chances and they are easily one of the most fun teams to watch... looking at the splits for the last 3, 5 and 10 games also shows that Raphinha's #s (both expected and actual) have been steadily improving.

It's a small sample size but over the last 3 games, Raphinha's xG90 + xA90 is the best of the 3 options and just about top 10 in the league. 2 G + 4 A in the last 5 games seems to give the Brazilian the lead in the FORM category.

Now let's focus on the matchups for these 3 players in the #DGW25:

Bamford & Raphinha - WOL (A), SOU (H)
Ings - CHE (H), LEE (A)

The CS % probabilities favour the Leeds boys once again...

Wolves: 29%
Southampton: 20%, 20%
Chelsea: 39%
Leeds: 27%, 28% https://twitter.com/FPL_Salah/status/1361994229367640071

Here are xGA + GA #s for the past 5 games:

WOL - xGA 4.23, GA 3
SOU - xGA 10.27, GA 18
CHE - xGA 2.65, GA 1
LEE - xGA 7.66, GA 8

Over this timeframe, SOU D is one of the worst in the league, Leeds is mid-table, Wolves is 4th best in both xGA and GA, and Chelsea D is the best.

Under Tuchel, Chelsea have been very sound defensively. 13 pts out of 15, 1 goal allowed in the last 5 (Rudiger OG of course! ), and the best xGA stats (yes, even better than MCI). So if you are captaining Danny Ings, you are banking on a brace vs. Leeds IMHO.

The Leeds D certainly gives Ings owners a glimmer of hope, especially if Kalvin Phillips is out. But I think the point of captaining a DGW player is to hopefully have the potential for a haul (however small) in BOTH games...

... looking at Ings & SOU's recent form and CHE's recent def prowess, I would actually start to consider Bruno over Ings (if you're not picking the Leeds duo). Bruno is a beast (just scored 2 goals vs. Real Sociedad as I wrote this)!

Another way of looking at it, based on the #s... I believe Chelsea's odds of a CS v SOU are higher than Wolves' chances of keeping a CS v Leeds.

Leeds matchups look to be much more favourable... Wolves D has certainly improved in 2021 and they seem to be playing a tighter game all around. xGA90 of 1.18 and GA90 of 1.375 (for 2021) are not elite #s but they are just outside the usual suspects - MCI, CHE, WHU, CHE, ARS, BHA

Southampton have lost 6 in a row and both xG and G are in the bottom 4 in the league during that time. They have been in fairly miserable form and even barring that freak 9-0 loss to ManU they have let in goals in bunches recently (Lei 2, Ars 3, New 3, Wol 2)

The fact that there's been rumours of McCarthy being benched for Forster do not bode well overall. The underlying #s indicate that the Leeds-Sou game could be a quite entertaining watch, maybe a 3-2 game or along those lines which of course means, it'll be a drab 1-0 affair

It's never an easy call - these are just stats and #s that speak to me and tell a story - you should as always trust your instinct and your gut. Based on this analysis, my decision is between Bamford and Raphinha...

Another aspect to this decision is something I would not have considered a few years ago (when I was a "set & forget" manager) - the potential for Bamford's EO % is quite massive this GW.

He is currently 55% owned and the 2nd highest transferred in player this week. His EO will likely be ~ 100% if not higher. (He's also on PKs afaik, another important factor)

Raph is also a popular transfer target but is still only owned by ~5% of mgrs. I may just chicken out and take Bam in case he hauls which would prob -vely impact my rank. On the other hand, Raph has been in vg form lately so if you like to live dangerously, it could be worth it!

In GW22 I had a similar dilemma - a relatively out of form Bruno v SOU or Salah (who had just scored 2 goals v WHU) v BHA. I was torn, my brain said Salah was back after that performance against WHU but something told me Bruno would do well...

... so I asked my 4.5 year old son to pick my cap . Thank Godddd he picked Bruno and we all know how that ended (17 - 2). I may have to resort to the same tactic this GW as I am really torn between Bam and Raphinha!

If anything, I hope that little story goes to show you should be having some fun with FPL - i loved the #MFFA 'campaign' by @hailcheaters (although I admit I'll be hiding behind my couch if I do end up capping Raph haha)

Hope you enjoyed the read and maybe some of the stats & #s help you in your decision!

RTs, comments & likes always appreciated!

GL ALL !