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new piece on state legislatures!
basically it's a deep dive on how we got from democratic domination 40 years ago to GOP wins now
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/02/18/republicans-now-enjoy-unmatched-power-states-it-was-40-year-effort/?arc404=true
basically it's a deep dive on how we got from democratic domination 40 years ago to GOP wins now
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/02/18/republicans-now-enjoy-unmatched-power-states-it-was-40-year-effort/?arc404=true
before you yell at me about the alaska house -- when i'm talking about 2020 results, i talk about Rs winning b/c more Rs won. when i talk about who has control, i have it as split (you'll see notes in the piece)
OKAY here is the content:
OKAY here is the content:
basically post-watergate the Ds had a bigger tent than Rs. lots of people who were really different ideologically all under the same roof
Rs built up organizational strength and benefited from slow-moving southern realignment. it took time, but eventually they had a breakthrough
Rs built up organizational strength and benefited from slow-moving southern realignment. it took time, but eventually they had a breakthrough
that breakthrough was 1994.
after decades of being the junior partner, the GOP had their moment. bill clinton had overreached on healthcare, Rs had the memory of Reagan still fresh, generational change had helped in some states
-> Rs suddenly had power to be competitive
after decades of being the junior partner, the GOP had their moment. bill clinton had overreached on healthcare, Rs had the memory of Reagan still fresh, generational change had helped in some states
-> Rs suddenly had power to be competitive
for over a decade, Rs basically had parity in the states. they lost a LOT of ground in 2006 and 2008, but then 2010 happened
obama was unpopular, many thought he went too far on healthcare and the GOP spent real money in states
that year, Rs went from competitive to dominant:
obama was unpopular, many thought he went too far on healthcare and the GOP spent real money in states
that year, Rs went from competitive to dominant:
you can see the progression pretty clearly in the long-term trendline
1980s, Ds were way ahead
1994 -> parity for about 12 years
2006, 2008 -> good for Dems
2010 -> GOP takes another jump
2014 was good for Rs, 2018 was good for Ds too. but overall 94 and 10 changed a lot
1980s, Ds were way ahead
1994 -> parity for about 12 years
2006, 2008 -> good for Dems
2010 -> GOP takes another jump
2014 was good for Rs, 2018 was good for Ds too. but overall 94 and 10 changed a lot
and then you get to 2020, where Rs are dominant despite losing the popular vote by kind of a lot
(alaska house people -- the state is split here b/c it's talking about control in 2021. elsewhere it's red b/c that was the "result" out of 2020 before coalition stuff started)
(alaska house people -- the state is split here b/c it's talking about control in 2021. elsewhere it's red b/c that was the "result" out of 2020 before coalition stuff started)
gerrymandering helped Rs maintain power in the 2010s
it'll probably help in the 2020s too, but maybe not as much (Ds seem to think they're better prepared this time)
also it might be hard for Ds to unwind this fast, given that 2022 is a midterm with a D potus
it'll probably help in the 2020s too, but maybe not as much (Ds seem to think they're better prepared this time)
also it might be hard for Ds to unwind this fast, given that 2022 is a midterm with a D potus
idk there's a bunch of other stuff in the piece. read it all! i think you'll like it :)
