Read on Twitter
For the past several weeks I have been watching U.S. vaccine allocations and supply very carefully.
Doses administered have hit a supply-based ceiling, topping out around 1.6-7M/day.
That is about to change, in a very big way.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-18/how-many-vaccine-doses-are-available-u-s-should-see-a-surge
Doses administered have hit a supply-based ceiling, topping out around 1.6-7M/day.
That is about to change, in a very big way.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-18/how-many-vaccine-doses-are-available-u-s-should-see-a-surge
The U.S. has topped on based on current supply. Take a look at our latest rolling average. Some of this is weather related, but with 1-15M doses/week going out, there's a daily max of around 1.5-2M doses/day. We are currently there:
Vaccine makes Pfizer and Moderna have become increasingly specific about their delivery plans.
Moderna says it will deliver 30-35M doses in Feb + March, and 40-50M doses/month starting in April.
Pfizer has committed to a similar timeline, though with fewer specifics.
Moderna says it will deliver 30-35M doses in Feb + March, and 40-50M doses/month starting in April.
Pfizer has committed to a similar timeline, though with fewer specifics.
Add J&J in there, and this begins to add up. As the vaccine makers have reiterated their targets more and more firmly, and provided more detail, the only way the math fits is with a RAMP.
This is what that looks like -- it is a LOT of vaccine.
This is what that looks like -- it is a LOT of vaccine.
There are ways all of this might not happen. Manufacturing may go wrong. Delivery bottlenecks. People might not want the vaccines. Still-unknown side effects. Etc.
But right now, seeing what I see, we're going to have a lot more doses, very soon. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-18/how-many-vaccine-doses-are-available-u-s-should-see-a-surge?sref=leQ3i2ya
But right now, seeing what I see, we're going to have a lot more doses, very soon. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-18/how-many-vaccine-doses-are-available-u-s-should-see-a-surge?sref=leQ3i2ya
I am, by recent nature, a skeptic. I have seen too much go wrong in this pandemic. And I have waited on this story for a while, and @tsrandall and I have had MANY late-night Slacks about what supply numbers were telling us.
Like I said, stuff might go wrong. Otherwise...
Like I said, stuff might go wrong. Otherwise...
Another caveat: this is going to take a bit to show up in the numbers. The snowstorms show what can happen when you throw a curve-ball -- vaccinations are down + distribution disrupted. That also means a backlog and likely mini-pop after it's over. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-18/how-many-vaccine-doses-are-available-u-s-should-see-a-surge?sref=leQ3i2ya
My *guess* is we see a continued slow period for a few more days, because of weather-related operational and data issues.
