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1/7
I don't have all the data yet, but I think I am a bit more skeptical about the "big spending" story than many others are. Total consumption at major retailers and restaurants during this year's Spring Festival was up 4.9% over the equivalent... https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinese-consumers-were-big-spenders-during-the-lunar-new-year-holiday-11613650350?reflink=desktopwebshare_twitter
I don't have all the data yet, but I think I am a bit more skeptical about the "big spending" story than many others are. Total consumption at major retailers and restaurants during this year's Spring Festival was up 4.9% over the equivalent... https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinese-consumers-were-big-spenders-during-the-lunar-new-year-holiday-11613650350?reflink=desktopwebshare_twitter
2/7
period in 2019, so there certainly was a partial recovery of consumption, but nominal GDP during that period was up at least 10%, which implies to me that the consumption share of GDP growth was lower than in 2019, even though we are all expecting it to be much higher...
period in 2019, so there certainly was a partial recovery of consumption, but nominal GDP during that period was up at least 10%, which implies to me that the consumption share of GDP growth was lower than in 2019, even though we are all expecting it to be much higher...
3/7
this year than in previous years. So far this hasn't seemed to have happened.
More importantly, spending on travel collapsed. I would have expected this to provide a pretty substantial one-off boost to spending on other types of consumption. I might not be thinking about...
this year than in previous years. So far this hasn't seemed to have happened.
More importantly, spending on travel collapsed. I would have expected this to provide a pretty substantial one-off boost to spending on other types of consumption. I might not be thinking about...
4/7
this correctly, but if you find yourself unexpectedly saving what you were going to spend on train tickets and hotels, you would probably increase what you otherwise would have spent on food, entertainment and shopping. Some of the consumption spending we did see this...
this correctly, but if you find yourself unexpectedly saving what you were going to spend on train tickets and hotels, you would probably increase what you otherwise would have spent on food, entertainment and shopping. Some of the consumption spending we did see this...
5/7
year, in other words, was just a redirection of travel spending, and if you combine the two, which is how most of us would budget, I believe total spending was down.
My point isn't that I disagree with the article or that there wasn't a partial rebound in...
year, in other words, was just a redirection of travel spending, and if you combine the two, which is how most of us would budget, I believe total spending was down.
My point isn't that I disagree with the article or that there wasn't a partial rebound in...
6/7
consumption. There was, but it isn't yet clear to me how much of a rebound. We are going to have to see much better than this over the rest of the year. Remember that most economist are expecting 2021 GDP to be 10-12% higher than 2019's GDP. It is too early in the year to...
consumption. There was, but it isn't yet clear to me how much of a rebound. We are going to have to see much better than this over the rest of the year. Remember that most economist are expecting 2021 GDP to be 10-12% higher than 2019's GDP. It is too early in the year to...
7/7
demand that consumption already play the expected role, but so far I don't think it has. We will have to wait and see whether we get stronger consumption growth in the next few months as people spend what they saved on travel or if they keep it permanently in savings.
demand that consumption already play the expected role, but so far I don't think it has. We will have to wait and see whether we get stronger consumption growth in the next few months as people spend what they saved on travel or if they keep it permanently in savings.
