I don't think anyone grasps how bad things are in Lebanon right now. Political stalemate, Iranian domination, Syrian refugees, economic failure, covid -- the country won't survive without dramatic action led by brave people inside and strong support from friends outside.

The problem is structural and precedes Hezbollah: a mixed religious population with no clear majority creates political deadlock which is the country's only enduring constitutional principle. I've written about Lebanon's systemic flaw here: https://www.wsj.com/articles/lebanons-discontent-has-religious-roots-11572561155

Hezbollah, like the PLO before it, merely takes advantage of this flaw and uses it to their advantage. Its forces need to be disarmed and dismantled, and Iran needs to be reigned in -- that's a given. But the underlying issue remains. In ten years another bad actor will rise.

As it stands, Lebanon is a failed experiment in religious coexistence. That's hard to say as someone who loves Lebanon and believes in coexistence. Foreign intervention can restore the old equilibrium. But for how long? And what then? Christians are Muslims are suffering today.

The answer is obvious: Whether dotted lines or solid lines; whether federalism, decentralization, or partition, Lebanon needs a major political reorganization. Firewalls need to be built. Core systems must be protected. Communities need to feel safe and authentically represented.

We like to say, "Lebanon is more than a country, it's a message." But let's be honest: The message was always a Christian message, heavily contested at every turn, and hasn't been effective since the 1960s when the Christians lost the ability to impose it. So: message or people?

Slavish devotion to a utopian idea that never worked over real humans whose lives suffer because of that idea is madness. The old Lebanon of the 50s & 60s is gone. The model was well-intentioned but ineffective -- the evidence is voluminous. The only question now is what's next.

Any solution that does not address Lebanon's systemic flaw is doomed to failure. Lebanese are suffering, leaving, and dying in real time. The US, France, and even Russia can help initiate a reorg, but can't impose it from the outside. Lebanese leaders need to stand up and lead.

Luckily such people exist. But how, they ask, can they stand up when Hezbollah kills anyone who breaks ranks? This is the dilemma we face. The best thing we can do is keep Iran/Hezbollah on the ropes and provide cover for dissidents looking for a new model that benefits everyone.

Lebanon has a future, just not in its current form. The sooner we see that the better. Status quo is dead. The "message" can't be guaranteed from outside. Neutrality will exacerbate the vacuum, enabling actors who laugh at such rules. Creative, decisive action alone wins the day.