The Biden team will try to avoid linking Iran to the Erbil rocket attack - they will downplay the role IRGC-QF militias had in the attack. They will defer to Baghdad on attribution.

Baghdad will push a narrative that ISIS remnants or former Baathists are responsible.
There will no military response from the Biden Administration - they were against designating the IRGC-QF and its proxies as terrorist groups to begin with.

Against designating AAH and KH as well.

Against targeting Soleimani and Mohandes.
Tehran is successfully pressuring the Biden administration - through proxy attacks against U.S. forces - to lift sanctions and rejoin the Iran Deal (JCPOA) without preconditions.

Tehran views the Biden team as a weak group that can be intimidated and pushed around.
"It has been a month now that the Biden administration has been continuing Trump's 'maximum pressure' policy of lawlessness, one-upmanship, and bullying," Zarif said in Tehran.
The Obama-Biden team rewarded provocations with concessions. The Islamic Republic of Iran believes Biden's Obama team: McGurk, Malley, Blinken, Kerry will do what they did in 2015 - concede on all fronts.
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