WR age/production a thread

So I decided I wanted to look at the recent track record of players and what their age, draft capital and Breakout age meant and what this could mean for the rookies

The sample I drew from is all WRs drafted in the NFL between 2006-2019. This gave me a total of 388 players. Breaking that down further to draft days gives the following

In order to look at success of these players I look at how many of those players have had at least 1 top 24 WR season in that time frame:

As you can see draft capital is a fantastic predictor of future success in the NFL.

I also want to give you an idea of the sample sizes of these data.

So 43.04% of WRs drafted are drafted in round 1-3

only 12.11% are drafted in the 1st round

Taking this further I wanted to look at age when entering the draft and breakout age to see what effect that has on hit rates:

I looked at both 20% BO and 30% BO.

If you limit the data only to 1st round picks it has an incredible hit rate

You go from around a 50% hit rate to hitting on almost two thirds of WRs by adding in the additional criteria.

However, I wanted to highlight this does greatly reduce the sample sizes.

47 players drafted in the 1st round (12.11% of smpl)

26 players with age 18/19 (20%) BO (6.7% of smpl & 55.32% of 1st rnd)

15 players with age 18/19 (30%) BO (3.87% of smpl & 31.91% of 1st rnd)

18 players with Age <22 in draft year (4.64% of smpl and 38.3% of 1st rnd)

So as you can see it improves the chance of hitting but it also is quite a small sample to be working with

I wanted to check with the Misses to see who we were missing and what their hit rates were

Of the 47 players drafted in the 1st round, 17 didn’t hit all three of the above criteria.

Of those 17 only 4 players actually had a top 24 season:
Nelson Agholor, AJ Green, Calvin Ridley and Kelvin Benjamin.

So a 23.5% hit rate for players who didn't hit each fo the criteria

So what does this mean for this year’s prospects?

Devonta Smith, Jaylen Waddle and Kadarius Toney all are older prospects and late breakouts in college that could receive 1st round draft capital.

Perhaps the most interesting player is Jaylen Waddle.

He had such a strange college career but is still being projected as a 1st round pick.

The only player in my sample who was a 1st round pick. Never broke out at a 20% level and was an older prospect in the draft was Cordarrelle Patterson.

Is Waddle destined for a similar career?

I for one don’t think I'll take that risk and am happy with no shares come May.