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This thread is going to be about quarterback fantasy production & what goes into making a QB1 (top 12). This is for a standard +4/-2 formats. We use data from the past 3 years looking for predictive trends. To qualify, the player must have at least 8 games started & 250+ attempts
In 2020, 8 of 12 QB1’s posted at least 15.0% of their fantasy points via rushing production.
The ones that did not:
Rodgers – 8.6%
Mahomes – 11.4%
Brady – 5.5%
Cousins – 7.1%
The ones that did not:
Rodgers – 8.6%
Mahomes – 11.4%
Brady – 5.5%
Cousins – 7.1%
The guys who did not produce on the ground posted a YPA number of at least 7.6. They finished 4th, 5th, 15th & 3rd respectively.
The guys who did not produce on the ground posted Adjusted Net YPA numbers higher than 7.3. They ranked 1st, 2nd, 8th & 10th in NFL respectively.
The guys who did not produce on the ground posted Adjusted Net YPA numbers higher than 7.3. They ranked 1st, 2nd, 8th & 10th in NFL respectively.
In 2019, 6 of 12 QB1’s posted at least 15.0% of their fantasy points via rushing production.
The ones that did not:
Prescott – 13.5%
Mahomes – 11.78%
Winston – 10.15%
Ryan – 7.74%
Stafford – 3.96%
Brees – 2.49%
The ones that did not:
Prescott – 13.5%
Mahomes – 11.78%
Winston – 10.15%
Ryan – 7.74%
Stafford – 3.96%
Brees – 2.49%
5 of the 6 guys (only Ryan out) who did not produce on the ground posted a YPA number of at least 7.6. They finished 5th, 4th, 6th, 2nd and 10th respectively.
4 of the 6 guys (only Ryan and Winston out) who did not produce on the ground posted Adjusted Net YPA numbers higher than 7.3. They finished 6th, 2nd, 5th and 3rd respectively.
In 2018, 4 of 12 QB1’s posted at least 15.0% of their fantasy points via rushing production.
Wilson – 12.6%
Rodgers – 12.44%
Mahomes – 9.44%
Brees – 8.62%
Ryan – 8.62%
Roethlisberger – 8.16%
Goff – 7.35%
Luck – 4.53%
Wilson – 12.6%
Rodgers – 12.44%
Mahomes – 9.44%
Brees – 8.62%
Ryan – 8.62%
Roethlisberger – 8.16%
Goff – 7.35%
Luck – 4.53%
6 of the 8 guys (only Rodgers and Luck out) who did not produce on the ground posted a YPA number of at least 7.6. They finished 8th, 1st, 6th, 7th, 14th & 3rd respectively.
5 of the 8 guys (only Rodgers, Luck and Roethlisberger out) who did not produce on the ground posted Adjusted Net Yards Per Pass Attempt numbers higher than 7.3. They finished 6th, 1st, 2nd, 4th & 5th respectively.
To conclude how a quarterback gets to a QB1 season, 33 of 36 over the past three seasons contributed at least 15.0% of their fantasy points on the ground and/or have a YPA of at least 7.6 yards.
31 of 36 over the past three seasons contributed at least 15.0% of their fantasy points on the ground or have an Adjusted Net YPA over 7.3.
Let us now look at the three who did not hit the 15.0% + 7.6 YPA. Can we notice any commonalities with these guys?
Matt Ryan (2019) – 7.2 YPA, 6.08 AN-YPA
616 attempts (3rd)
Aaron Rodgers (2018) – 7.4 YPA, 6.96 AN-YPA
597 attempts (5th)
Andrew Luck (2018) – 7.2 YPA, 6.95 AN-YPA
639 attempts (2nd)
616 attempts (3rd)
Aaron Rodgers (2018) – 7.4 YPA, 6.96 AN-YPA
597 attempts (5th)
Andrew Luck (2018) – 7.2 YPA, 6.95 AN-YPA
639 attempts (2nd)
If you do not hit these marks, you can still get there with a ton of volume. This makes sense as fantasy is a volume game.
Let us now look at the two others who did not hit the 15.0% + 7.3 AN-YPA. Can we notice any commonalities with these guys?
Let us now look at the two others who did not hit the 15.0% + 7.3 AN-YPA. Can we notice any commonalities with these guys?
Jameis Winston (2019) – 8.2 YPA, 6.15 AN-YPA
626 attempts (1st)
Ben Roethlisberger (2018) – 7.6 YPA, 7.04 AN-YPA
675 attempts (1st)
626 attempts (1st)
Ben Roethlisberger (2018) – 7.6 YPA, 7.04 AN-YPA
675 attempts (1st)
Curiously, both Winston and Roethlisberger hit the 7.6 YPA number that we filtered out previously. Much less efficient based on the AN-YPA, but we again see that you can get there with volume as both finished at the top of the league in attempts.
Overall conclusion:
A QB1 must have 15.0%+ rush share of fantasy points or a YPA over 7.6 and a AN-YPA over 7.3. If they don't check the latter two marks, they need a TON of passing volume compensate. Keep in mind when you look at projections for 2021 & considering QB “ceiling.”
A QB1 must have 15.0%+ rush share of fantasy points or a YPA over 7.6 and a AN-YPA over 7.3. If they don't check the latter two marks, they need a TON of passing volume compensate. Keep in mind when you look at projections for 2021 & considering QB “ceiling.”
Now, lets look at some career numbers in YPA and AN-YPA and look at some quarterbacks who are below this number for their careers and have at least one full year of NFL games started AND have never hit the 15.0% rushing threshold.
Baker Mayfield (ADP QB13) – 7.38 and 7.09)
Matthew Stafford (ADP QB16 – 7.25 and 7.11)
Where is the value?
Check upcoming @DLFootball coming soon!
Matthew Stafford (ADP QB16 – 7.25 and 7.11)
Where is the value?
Check upcoming @DLFootball coming soon!
