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THREAD on this cool scooplet by @lrozen.
Tomorrow @MunSecConf Biden may announce the US is back in the Iran nuclear deal. What *might* that mean? https://diplomatic.substack.com/p/source-biden-could-tell-munich-security
Tomorrow @MunSecConf Biden may announce the US is back in the Iran nuclear deal. What *might* that mean? https://diplomatic.substack.com/p/source-biden-could-tell-munich-security
Biden rejoining the nuclear deal would be huge. As you may recall, Trump tore up the deal in 2018, reimposing all nuclear sanctions on Iran - and then some.
Trump’s ‘maximum pressure’ campaign was a spectacular failure. Iran’s nuclear program expanded, rocket attacks against US troops in Iraq, counter-ISIS campaign suspended...it’s impossible to overstate just how much of a disaster this was. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/11/17/trump-iran-pressure-biden-nuclear/
Other parties to the nuclear deal, Europe in particular, fought hard to preserve it during the Trump years. But Iran’s recent actions - producing uranium metal, threatening to limit nuclear inspections - have narrowed the window for diplomacy. https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/16/iran-nuclear-deal-uranium-metal-production-called-provocative.html
There IS still time to get the deal back and lock down Iran’s nuclear program again. A Biden announcement tomorrow would be a step in the right direction. https://www.newsweek.com/joe-biden-must-rejoin-iran-nuclear-deal-avoid-unacceptable-war-former-officials-say-1567097
But it’s just a first step. The US can say we’re in the deal, but unless we lift the sanctions we promised to lift, we are not in compliance.
The tricky part will be the US and Iran negotiating a step by step return to full compliance. Iran takes a step to roll back its nuclear program, gets some sanctions relief in return. Step by step, until we get to full compliance.
It will get worse before it gets better. Even a Biden announcement tomorrow, or some economic relief like the IMF loan, might not be enough to stop Iran’s limiting nuclear inspections, which they plan to do this weekend. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-nuclear-usa-idUSKBN2AF0HW
For more on the implications of reducing nuclear inspections, see this great thread by @KelseyDav https://twitter.com/kelseydav/status/1362155836206813184
Bottom line: will President Biden mention the Iran deal @MunSecConf tomorrow? No idea. Here’s what I do know: whatever he says, it will be great. We’re back in Paris, back in the WHO...
America is back. And that is something to celebrate.
America is back. And that is something to celebrate.
