Read on Twitter
The Biden admin’s lagging pace on Iran policy now threatens to undo the JCPOA, which was already faltering. In this piece, I describe a 3-phase synchronized process to bring both sides back into compliance before the next Iranian president takes office.1/6 https://www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-north-africa/gulf-and-arabian-peninsula/iran/biden-should-cap-freeze-and-roll-back-irans-nuclear-program
2/6 The 1st step would be to cap the current standoff, preventing it from escalating post-Feb 23rd when Iran has threatened to limit the IAEA's access. From the U.S. side, this would mean revoking Trump’s 2018 withdrawal with an Executive Order.
3/6 To restore a measure of trust with a humanitarian gesture, Biden should quietly greenlight Iran's request for an IMF emergency loan channeled through the @WHO. These two measures will not entail any immediate sanctions relief from the US, but could bring down the temperature.
4/6 The subsequent reciprocal set of steps would be for Iran to freeze the most problematic aspects of its nuclear program (20% enrichment, R&D, halting AP implementation) in exchange for some oil waivers so that Tehran can partially restore its oil exports & repatriate revenues.
5/6 If they can accomplish these moves, the two sides would then have enough time and space to negotiate a timetable for a series of staggered additional synchronized steps that would bring them back into full compliance with their obligations before Aug, when Rouhani leaves.
6/6 I'm not holding my breath that any of this would happen. In fact, the pattern of the past 42 years suggest that likeliest scenario is for both sides to go over the cliff on the 23rd. But that has never stopped @CrisisGroup from saying what is right! https://www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-north-africa/gulf-and-arabian-peninsula/iran/biden-should-cap-freeze-and-roll-back-irans-nuclear-program
