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Regarding Facebook blocking news sites in Australia. I have some thoughts on strategy, foresight, and leverage specifically relating to news orgs. (1 of ??) https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/17/technology/facebook-google-australia-news.html
Between 2006 and 2016, I was a lecturer in the Sulzberger program at Columbia University. The program brought together executives of news organizations. And every year, I asked the same question:
What if news organizations blocked Facebook from sharing their stories?
What if news organizations blocked Facebook from sharing their stories?
The question -- what if news orgs blocked people from sharing stories on Facebook -- had to do with redefining the value chain within journalism.
Here's what I was really asking:
Where are the leaks in the current value chain for news distribution?
Here's what I was really asking:
Where are the leaks in the current value chain for news distribution?
Where did Facebook create tensions within the value chain that didn't exist before?
What assumptions would need to be true for news orgs to maintain or widen revenue margins if FB's distribution model was based on attention metrics?
Most importantly...
What assumptions would need to be true for news orgs to maintain or widen revenue margins if FB's distribution model was based on attention metrics?
Most importantly...
Until there was Facebook, news orgs had maintained their own communities. Yes, comments were broken.
But if digital distribution was managed by another platform (FB), what would the true cost be in the future for new reader acquisition? New suscriber acquisition?
But if digital distribution was managed by another platform (FB), what would the true cost be in the future for new reader acquisition? New suscriber acquisition?
And then of course, the existential questions:
• How does your business model need to change to account for an inevitable shift in advertising?
• How will your role in society change when algorithms, designed by others, curate editorial content?
• How does your business model need to change to account for an inevitable shift in advertising?
• How will your role in society change when algorithms, designed by others, curate editorial content?
In 2008, I asked: What about your current business model make you vulnerable to uncertainty, new entrants, or changes to the digital landscape?
Specifically, how does Facebook demand that news orgs find a different approach to news distribution?
Specifically, how does Facebook demand that news orgs find a different approach to news distribution?
Here's what I found so frustrating. In those early days, there was a sense that FB didn't matter. That news orgs, especially the big brands, had little to worry about.
There was little sense that FB (or Twitter or Google) would challenge the business model for news.
There was little sense that FB (or Twitter or Google) would challenge the business model for news.
And of course, by the mid-2010s, things changed. FB and Google had all the leverage. They controlled the last mile -- and the most important, and lucrative aspect of news distribution. They controlled the relationship with the consumer, eroding brand equity.
So in 2015, I started asking a different question to news executives:
What if every news organization banded together, and for 2 weeks didn't allow content to be shared on FB? If news stories couldn't be shared, how would that impact FB's bottom line?
What if every news organization banded together, and for 2 weeks didn't allow content to be shared on FB? If news stories couldn't be shared, how would that impact FB's bottom line?
Responses ranged from "we don't trust that our competitors would comply" to "we can't survive without FB now -- we need the clicks."
Not a single person met uncertainty with curiosity.
As for future leverage FB would have over them? They all wanted to wait and see.
Not a single person met uncertainty with curiosity.
As for future leverage FB would have over them? They all wanted to wait and see.
At one point (pre-Trump WH), I suggested that news orgs form a global consortia and buy Twitter. Mid-2016, $TWTR hit a low of $14/ share from $69. There wasn't a clear and sustainable business model. But it was already a megaphone for journalists and politicians, so...
My thinking was: if news orgs bought Twitter and treated it as a utility, they could unify distribution standards, pool consumer data, learn a lot and compete against FB and Google without losing market share or margins.
In that scenario, Twitter would have been a 21st century news wire that didn't have to make money as a utility, because value could be derived from (1) a share of the last mile distribution piece, (2) the data, (3) traffic and (4) closing those value chain leaks.
I was unsuccessful in getting folks to consider this alternate future for news distribution.
That brings us to FB's announcement in Australia.
That brings us to FB's announcement in Australia.
FB is now asking that very same question I used to ask news executives all those years ago, with a twist:
What if Facebook blocked people from sharing stories from news organizations?
How can we leverage the leaks in the current value chain for news distribution?
What if Facebook blocked people from sharing stories from news organizations?
How can we leverage the leaks in the current value chain for news distribution?
It's so frustrating to watch this happening from the sidelines.
Deep uncertainty about the future always requires deep questions -- questions that are bigger than your newsroom, your city, your part of the industry.
Leadership is challenging deeply held, cherished beliefs.
Deep uncertainty about the future always requires deep questions -- questions that are bigger than your newsroom, your city, your part of the industry.
Leadership is challenging deeply held, cherished beliefs.
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Actually... one more thing.
I'm going to reveal something that's in our 2021 Tech Trends Report, which doesn't launch for a month, but is very relevant to Facebook blocking news orgs in Australia... and to GameStop, and to AWS/ Parler...
I'm going to reveal something that's in our 2021 Tech Trends Report, which doesn't launch for a month, but is very relevant to Facebook blocking news orgs in Australia... and to GameStop, and to AWS/ Parler...
C-DOSing. Corporate Denials of Service.
Facebook said it would restrict people and publishers from sharing or viewing news links in Australia -- effective immediately.
That's an example of what @FTI calls a C-DOS.
What does it mean that FB can C-DOS a news organization?
Facebook said it would restrict people and publishers from sharing or viewing news links in Australia -- effective immediately.
That's an example of what @FTI calls a C-DOS.
What does it mean that FB can C-DOS a news organization?
C-DOSing is especially dangerous in a situation like this... where for years news orgs have built and optimized their sites according to the wishes of outside platforms, like FB and Google.
What if FB C-DOSed Australian news orgs in the middle of last year's wildfires?
What if FB C-DOSed Australian news orgs in the middle of last year's wildfires?
What are the next-order impacts of FB C-DOSing legitimate news orgs in Australia?
What role could this play in future misinformation? Misleading news about Covid-19?
With little leverage, how do news orgs come back to the table and win in the future? Is that possible?!
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What role could this play in future misinformation? Misleading news about Covid-19?
With little leverage, how do news orgs come back to the table and win in the future? Is that possible?!
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