Guys, I know the Ted-Cruz-is-in-Cancun thing feels like a silly internet conspiracy, and everyone went off it when Shuster “confirmed” it, but the photo evidence is actually kind of overwhelming.

First, is the person in the picture Ted Cruz?

Well, he's wearing the same shoes, glasses, and carrying the same bag as Ted Cruz did when he was in Cancun in this 2019 picture.

He's also wearing a mask Ted Cruz recently started wearing.

There's also a second picture, seemingly from a totally different source, of an unmasked man who looks like Cruz, wearing the same pullover, sitting in an airport lounge. That person's ring and Fitbit are also consistent with what Cruz always wears, for what it's worth.

Second question: when was the picture taken?

We can say assume it was taken within the last few months, because of masks and winter clothing.

The gate information in the background (IAH -> ILL at E11) would have only been correct two days since Nov. 1: Dec. 26 and yesterday.

So we can say, bare minimum, that if this is an old picture near an airport gate that's been repurposed, they got incredibly lucky. Any day this winter but Dec. 26, the gate information would have been wrong.

Third, was Cruz going to Cancun?

This is the hardest to pin down. But the picture suggests he was standing near gate E11 at 4PM yesterday or Dec. 26. UAL 1020 flew from Houston to Cancun from Gate E10, right next door, departing at 4:45.

(On Dec. 26, that flight departed E20).

He is also visibly carrying a passport.