Replugging my recent piece on the takeaways from Pangong Tso disengagement. A few key points follow in this thread. (1/10)
@SCS_Disputes @jmohanmalik @Cold_Peace_ @Chellaney @gchikermane https://www.firstpost.com/world/pangong-tso-disengagement-three-key-takeaways-as-india-china-finally-break-the-deadlock-9306041.html
@SCS_Disputes @jmohanmalik @Cold_Peace_ @Chellaney @gchikermane https://www.firstpost.com/world/pangong-tso-disengagement-three-key-takeaways-as-india-china-finally-break-the-deadlock-9306041.html
First up, I argue that Pangong Tso disengagement is India's conditional success in the battle of attrition. China is rolling back its troops from Finger 4-8 and demolishing structures on both banks of the lake. This must qualify as a “win”. Why? (2/10) https://www.firstpost.com/world/pangong-tso-disengagement-three-key-takeaways-as-india-china-finally-break-the-deadlock-9306041.html
The standard operating procedure of China’s territorial expansion involves erecting structures on ground and creating faits accompli to change “facts on the ground” and implementing “gray-zone tactics” to tire out its rival. (3/10) https://www.firstpost.com/world/pangong-tso-disengagement-three-key-takeaways-as-india-china-finally-break-the-deadlock-9306041.html
For instance, China had put up a massive 81x25m signage in Mandarin and a map of China between Fingers 4&5 for the illustrations to be spotted in satellite imagery and create an illusion of control. (4/10) https://www.firstpost.com/world/pangong-tso-disengagement-three-key-takeaways-as-india-china-finally-break-the-deadlock-9306041.html
Evacuation of PLA troops from the area they were squatting on since May 2020, demotion of the structures erected to create ‘faits accompli’, & creation of a ‘no-patrol zone’ works more in India’s favour. (5/10) https://www.firstpost.com/world/pangong-tso-disengagement-three-key-takeaways-as-india-china-finally-break-the-deadlock-9306041.html
By raising the cost of China’s territorial aggression, India has lessened China’s appetite for provocative behavior, but this assumption must pass the test of time. What isn’t in doubt at this stage that India has gained in strategic confidence. (6/10) https://www.firstpost.com/world/pangong-tso-disengagement-three-key-takeaways-as-india-china-finally-break-the-deadlock-9306041.html
Also, unless Xi Jinping is playing 64D geopolitical chess where none of the outcomes that we see are what they seem, all that Beijing has managed to do is push India and the US closer at a time when Washington is revising its China strategy. (7/10) https://www.firstpost.com/world/pangong-tso-disengagement-three-key-takeaways-as-india-china-finally-break-the-deadlock-9306041.html
Another key takeaway is that the disengagement formula wasn’t a sudden epiphany but a slow grind of nerves, resolve and hard haggling stretched over several months. Both sides proposed/cancelled several plans to break the deadlock. (8/10) https://www.firstpost.com/world/pangong-tso-disengagement-three-key-takeaways-as-india-china-finally-break-the-deadlock-9306041.html
India’s politico-military approach is also worth noting. MEA representatives accompanied generals during military-level talks to ensure that there were no gaps in communication. This breaking of silo could be a template for future negotiations. (9/10) https://www.firstpost.com/world/pangong-tso-disengagement-three-key-takeaways-as-india-china-finally-break-the-deadlock-9306041.html
3rd takeaway is there must be a thorough assessment of bilateral ties even if the disengagement process stays true to plan. Worth remembering that China has not abandoned any territorial claims and there are examples galore of it reneging on deals. (10/10) https://www.firstpost.com/world/pangong-tso-disengagement-three-key-takeaways-as-india-china-finally-break-the-deadlock-9306041.html