The new Reagan FRUS / Soviet Union volume has just been released, triggering a new round of debate about how close we came to nuclear war in 1983. See this latest oped by @FOIANate and @thedeadhandbook: https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/soviet-nuclear-war-able-archer/2021/02/17/711fa9e2-7166-11eb-93be-c10813e358a2_story.html?fbclid=IwAR2TMIhUYOqLnqlmAdkS2AA8D6cLR5O4iKDg2of2IT7WbrND2SS8ZWjFsmk.

My take on this (and I have not changed my mind on the basis of the new documents) is that it is unlikely that the Soviet leadership actually contemplated a pre-emptive nuclear strike. Now, of course the Politburo transcripts that would finally confirm this are not yet available.

And we do know of the high level of concern in the Soviet leadership about escalating tensions, which was in part reflected in the RYAN decision (to monitor for possible US preparations for the first strike).

On the other hand, there's also evidence that the Soviet leaders believed that Reagan et al were not nearly as bad and militaristic as Reagan's rhetoric suggested. You can trace positive signs in Soviet assessment of the US post Andropov's meeting with Bush in Moscow in Nov. '82.

By Sept. 1983 Andropov for most intents and purposes was out of action - he was sick in the hospital. Politburo meetings were actually conducted by Gorbachev. Just strikes me as highly unusual that Gorbachev could contemplate authorising a nuclear war.

So, how then do we explain the Soviet stand-by as detailed in these documents? I'd venture a guess: this may well have been a form of signalling, much like 10 years earlier Defcon 2 signalled US resolve in resisting a possible Soviet landing in the Middle East.

Just as in 1973 there was a lot of ground to cover between Defcon 2 and actually fighting a nuclear with the Soviets over Sadat, so in 1983, there was a lot of ground to cover between putting your planes on a nuclear stand-by and actually sending them to obliterate Europe.

"But they've never done this before!" Yes, and that's why there's still a lot we don't know. One thing we do know is that the Soviets engaged in brinksmanship throughout the Cold War but for all we know not even once did they actually have any resolve to go nuclear - thanks god.

But I am open to being convinced otherwise. In the coming days I will be closely scrutinising the new documents, and in fact writing of this episode in my new book. More posts to come.