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B.1.1.7 variant first seen in UK will be dominant by end of March
If we do our job, we can vaccinate everyone over 65 by then
And every teacher
And all school staff
A pipe dream? No – doable.
But hard
Lets look at some numbers to see why I'm optimistic
Thread
If we do our job, we can vaccinate everyone over 65 by then
And every teacher
And all school staff
A pipe dream? No – doable.
But hard
Lets look at some numbers to see why I'm optimistic
Thread
Right now, we have 26M people who have gotten only 1 dose
They need the second dose
How many folks >65 still haven't received any vaccine?
35 million
Even if we do a 1M first doses per say focused on seniors, it'll take us until late march to get 1 dose into all of them
2/9
They need the second dose
How many folks >65 still haven't received any vaccine?
35 million
Even if we do a 1M first doses per say focused on seniors, it'll take us until late march to get 1 dose into all of them
2/9
We can get 2nd dose into about half (remember, have to wait 3-4 weeks between doses)
So we need 52M doses to get all remaining 35M seniors at least one dose and half their 2nd dose
What about teachers? 3.2M teachers in America
But schools have other staff too!
3/9
So we need 52M doses to get all remaining 35M seniors at least one dose and half their 2nd dose
What about teachers? 3.2M teachers in America
But schools have other staff too!
3/9
Best estimates are about 2M staff -- but if we round up,
6M teachers/staff
Imagine we rush to get all teachers and staff fully vaccinated by 3/31
That’s another 12M doses needed
That’s 90M doses need
This assumes no double counting and zero hesitancy
4/9
6M teachers/staff
Imagine we rush to get all teachers and staff fully vaccinated by 3/31
That’s another 12M doses needed
That’s 90M doses need
This assumes no double counting and zero hesitancy
4/9
Obviously too aggressive
Assumes no teacher has already gotten vaccinated
Assumes no teacher/staff >65 (probably 10-15% are)
And assumes no vaccine hesitancy – that everyone will want it
Realistically? need closer to 75M doses if 80% uptake among seniors, teachers
5/9
Assumes no teacher has already gotten vaccinated
Assumes no teacher/staff >65 (probably 10-15% are)
And assumes no vaccine hesitancy – that everyone will want it
Realistically? need closer to 75M doses if 80% uptake among seniors, teachers
5/9
How many will we have?
We have 17M doses of Pfizer/Moderna in freezers at states now
And we are close to producing, distributing 2M doses a day
41 days until 3/31 --> 82M doses
So we should have produced, distributed 99M doses by 3/31
This assumes no J&J vaccine
6/9
We have 17M doses of Pfizer/Moderna in freezers at states now
And we are close to producing, distributing 2M doses a day
41 days until 3/31 --> 82M doses
So we should have produced, distributed 99M doses by 3/31
This assumes no J&J vaccine
6/9
So we’ll have about 100M doses to administer between now and 3/31
2.5M doses a day
We can administer that if we have supply
And will need 75M to:
1. Finish current folks
2. Give two doses to teachers/staff
3. Two doses to half remaining seniors
4. Single dose to other half
2.5M doses a day
We can administer that if we have supply
And will need 75M to:
1. Finish current folks
2. Give two doses to teachers/staff
3. Two doses to half remaining seniors
4. Single dose to other half
We can finish 2nd doses for of rest of seniors early April
And vaccinate other high risk folks then too
Bottom line?
We should have enough vaccines for high risk folks before UK variant dominant
Need flawless execution
But its doable
And I think we can do this
End
And vaccinate other high risk folks then too
Bottom line?
We should have enough vaccines for high risk folks before UK variant dominant
Need flawless execution
But its doable
And I think we can do this
End
