1) The Montreal public health department released its weekly report on #COVID19 outbreaks on Wednesday, reporting a dramatic drop in clusters. But behind the headline number are worrisome trends. In this thread, I will focus on the trouble spots.

2) First, the headline number: #COVID19 outbreaks in Montreal plunged by 116 to 363 on Tuesday from a week earlier. I haven’t seen such a significant decrease in months. This is likely the result of the nightly curfew and other restrictions that Quebec imposed on Jan. 9.

3) Digging deeper, one observes that #COVID19 outbreaks in hospitals and eldercare homes plunged by 109 to 65. Even more impressive is the fact the number of active cases plummeted by 2,001 to 1,608 in this sector, suggesting perhaps the effectiveness of the vaccines.

4) However, amid the positive news there were still increases in the number of #COVID19 cases and outbreaks in schools, the workplace and in prisons. More evidence is emerging that the B117 variant may be driving the transmission in schools. https://montrealgazette.com/news/local-news/montreal-covid-19-school-cases-now-rising-nearly-1-5-times-faster-than-last-fall

5) And as I wrote yesterday, public health officials are investigating whether the B117 strain may also be driving Bordeaux prison’s biggest #COVID19 cluster in the #pandemic. Bordeaux reported Wednesday the number of infected inmates rose by four to 129. https://montrealgazette.com/news/local-news/bordeaux-and-three-other-quebec-jails-hit-with-covid-19-wave

6) Workplace #COVID19 outbreaks rose by six to 132. Drilling down into the stats, one discovers the greatest increase in cases linked to the workplace occurred in retail stores. This has taken place a little over two weeks after Quebec allowed stores and shopping malls to reopen.

7) Since the reopening of malls, social media has abounded with photos and videos of shoppers failing to keep their two-metre distance from each other. Provincially, the number of #COVID19 workplace outbreaks jumped by 40 to 372 on Wednesday. All other sectors saw decreases.

8) Also on Wednesday, authorities revealed the number of presumptive cases involving mostly the B117 variant rose from 86 to 135. The combination of packed shopping malls during the March break and the more contagious variant doesn’t augur well.

9) And so Montreal — which quickly became the epicenter of the #pandemic last spring — finds itself at a surreal crossroads, with the #COVID19 incidence falling in the city, along with hospitalizations and most types of outbreaks. Yet the threat of variants grows with each day.

10) In this regard, Montreal is a microcosm of what's now occurring worldwide: declining cases amid a proliferation of variants. No one knows how this will unfold. But certainly, it’s better to act prudently than to throw caution to the wind during the March break. End of thread.