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This thread is going to be about WR production in 2020, the week-to-week production thresholds and a summary of why #wrsdontmatter
Let look at the target numbers in 2020:
35 WR had 100+ targets (the most since 2016)
43 WR had 90+ targets (the most since 2016)
Let look at the target numbers in 2020:
35 WR had 100+ targets (the most since 2016)
43 WR had 90+ targets (the most since 2016)
Conclusion: targets are being spread out more to more players.
The threshold to hit a top 12 week was 20.74 PPR (up 4.5% from 2019)
2 players averaged above the WR1 threshold in 2020 (compared to 1 in 2019)
The threshold to hit a top 12 week was 20.74 PPR (up 4.5% from 2019)
2 players averaged above the WR1 threshold in 2020 (compared to 1 in 2019)
The threshold to hit a top 24 week was 15.68 PPR (up 7.8% from 2019)
15 players averaged above the WR2 threshold in 2020 (compared to 12 in 2019)
15 players averaged above the WR2 threshold in 2020 (compared to 12 in 2019)
The threshold to hit a top 36 week was 12.14 PPR (up 8.1% from 2019)
40 players averaged above the WR3 threshold in 2020 (compared to 39 in 2019)
Conclusion: the WR2-3 range is more heavily populated AND scoring more in 2020.
40 players averaged above the WR3 threshold in 2020 (compared to 39 in 2019)
Conclusion: the WR2-3 range is more heavily populated AND scoring more in 2020.
75 different WR posted a top 12 week in 2020. Same as 2019.
106 different WR posted a top 24 week in 2020. 104 did it in 2019.
129 different WR posted a top 36 week in 2020. 132 did it in 2019.
106 different WR posted a top 24 week in 2020. 104 did it in 2019.
129 different WR posted a top 36 week in 2020. 132 did it in 2019.
Conclusion: just as many fantasy relevant receivers are contributing year to year
We now look at QB efficiency numbers per attempt and how they impact the top 12, top 24 and top 36 WR.
The average NFL passing attempt created .438 PPR points per pass attempt.
We now look at QB efficiency numbers per attempt and how they impact the top 12, top 24 and top 36 WR.
The average NFL passing attempt created .438 PPR points per pass attempt.
Using QB’s with more than 5 games and 150+ passing attempts:
9 QB’s were more than 20% below league average. I will refer to them as QB-F’s.
10 QB’s were up to 20% below league average. I will refer to them as QB-D’s.
9 QB’s were more than 20% below league average. I will refer to them as QB-F’s.
10 QB’s were up to 20% below league average. I will refer to them as QB-D’s.
18 different QB’s hit this number (at or above league average). I will refer to them as QB-C’s.
11 different QB’s were at least 10% or more above the league average. I will refer to them as QB-B’s.
11 different QB’s were at least 10% or more above the league average. I will refer to them as QB-B’s.
7 different QB’s were at least 20% or more above the league average. I will refer to them as QB-A’s.
We now look at the distribution of where the top 12, 24 and 36 wide receivers finished (in PPG) with each of these QB’s.
We now look at the distribution of where the top 12, 24 and 36 wide receivers finished (in PPG) with each of these QB’s.
WR 1-12:
QB-A – 9
QB-B – 0
QB-C – 1
QB-D - 2
QB-F – 0
WR 13-24:
QB-A – 1
QB-B – 4
QB-C – 3
QB-D – 3
QB-F – 1
WR 25-36:
QB-A – 2
QB-B – 1
QB-C – 3
QB-D – 4
QB-F – 2
QB-A – 9
QB-B – 0
QB-C – 1
QB-D - 2
QB-F – 0
WR 13-24:
QB-A – 1
QB-B – 4
QB-C – 3
QB-D – 3
QB-F – 1
WR 25-36:
QB-A – 2
QB-B – 1
QB-C – 3
QB-D – 4
QB-F – 2
Conclusion: the elite, top 12 WR are tied to the elite QB’s. The WR2 and WR3 production seems to come from all different types of QB.
This takes us back to the start, we notice target share is being spread out more and more each season.
This takes us back to the start, we notice target share is being spread out more and more each season.
The threshold to hit each level of WR is increasing.
Now, we apply this to dynasty and values. Volume matters, although overall targets are being spread out more and more, finding a target hog can lead to an inefficient season.
Now, we apply this to dynasty and values. Volume matters, although overall targets are being spread out more and more, finding a target hog can lead to an inefficient season.
The three WR1 performers who were not tied to QB-A’s ranked 2nd, 5th and 7th in targets. They need 10 targets per game.
Conclusion: A receiver can win with a bad QB only with high volume.
Conclusion: A receiver can win with a bad QB only with high volume.
Wide receiver value appears to be very, very heavily correlated to QB efficiency.
The 9 WR1 performers who were tied to QB-A’s only averaged 8.45 targets per game and scored 18.89 PPG.
The 9 WR1 performers who were tied to QB-A’s only averaged 8.45 targets per game and scored 18.89 PPG.
The 19 receivers who finished as WR1/2/3 who were tied to QB-C’s or worse averaged 8.25 targets per game and scored 15.08 PPG.
To reach the 18.89 PPG numbers, they would need to average 10.33 targets per game on average to make up the gap.
To reach the 18.89 PPG numbers, they would need to average 10.33 targets per game on average to make up the gap.
This certainly applies at the VERY top of the WR dynasty rankings. Talent matters. Profile matters. Age matters. Past production matters.
However, to be a WR1, you likely need to be tied to an efficient QB to sustain this level of production.
However, to be a WR1, you likely need to be tied to an efficient QB to sustain this level of production.
Otherwise, a wide receiver on a team with an average quarterback just can’t get there without tons of volume and as the numbers show, almost a 25% increase in volume compared to the guys who are tied to the QB-A passers.
Back to the statement of #wrsdontmatter
They do, just not outside of the elite talents tied to efficient quarterbacks or those who we can project for 10 targets per game or a 160-target pace.
Conclusion: be selective on which WR's you draft EARLY and who you project as ELITE.
They do, just not outside of the elite talents tied to efficient quarterbacks or those who we can project for 10 targets per game or a 160-target pace.
Conclusion: be selective on which WR's you draft EARLY and who you project as ELITE.
