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I just finished reading the new study on factors influencing school re-openings. I first want to thank the authors for their valuable contribution to our understanding: @KatharineStrunk @SReckhow @MattGrossmann Meg Turner. Do give their paper a read.
https://www.edworkingpapers.com/sites/default/files/ai21-355.pdf
1/18
https://www.edworkingpapers.com/sites/default/files/ai21-355.pdf
1/18
I believe I have a slightly different way of looking at their results. My take is at the end of this thread. But first their results.
2/18
2/18
One major finding: "Partisanship was much more associated with district reopening plans than COVID-19 rates. Republicans in the Michigan public were also far more favorable than were Democrats toward in-person learning."
(There's more in the study but I'll focus on this.)
3/18
(There's more in the study but I'll focus on this.)
3/18
Generally, all governors closed schools last spring. So there wasn't partisanship at that level. But once districts had the ability to make their own decisions, the red-ness or blue-ness of a district mattered.
4/18
4/18
Here's an important point.
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Here's another.
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The size of the effect is meaningful: "In heavily Republican counties, school districts are 1.7 times as likely to offer in-person instruction."
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And this reflects public opinion: Although the public as a whole was somewhat divided on whether in-person should be offered, "Among Democrats, only 25% agreed with an in-person option for education, while 78% of Republicans agreed."
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This is all very interesting and important.
I have a somewhat positive reaction to these findings--more positive than the authors, I think. They seem to be disappointed that citizens' political views influenced re-opening decisions.
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I have a somewhat positive reaction to these findings--more positive than the authors, I think. They seem to be disappointed that citizens' political views influenced re-opening decisions.
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They write, "Although we might hope that local decision-making was more responsive to local health threat, it was instead more responsive to citizen and interest group views."
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And they write, "State non-partisanship in this case left local districts with most of the difficult decisions. They appear to have been less able to resist partisan-aligned positions on school reopening."
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Here's my take, fwiw.
Different people have different understandings of the world--related to risk, jobs, liberty, technocracy, government power, social issues, tradition, and much more. People with similar views gravitate to the same political party.
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Different people have different understandings of the world--related to risk, jobs, liberty, technocracy, government power, social issues, tradition, and much more. People with similar views gravitate to the same political party.
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When Democrats do one thing and Republicans another, it's not just that their Democrat-ness or Republican-ness held sway. It can be that a way of understanding the world was determinative. Party affiliation isn't doing the work so much as capturing a way of seeing the world.
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School boards are democratically controlled bodies. Their members are elected. They should reflect the views, sensibilities, etc of their voters.
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As long as we believe different people can have different opinions on whether schools should be open, these results are sensible--maybe something to make us glad?
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People with different views self-select into different parties; they applied their views to the real-world issue of school closure; people in different parties reached different conclusions; then democratically legitimate boards reflected opinion in their respective areas.
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In other words I'd be upset if school boards had "resist(ed) partisan-aligned positions on school re-openings." That would've indicated to me that elected officials were disregarding the legitimate but different conclusions citizens were reaching.
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Again, sincere thanks to the authors for valuable research on such a pressing issue.
~end
~end
