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This is a fascinating paper - but I'd quibble with the conclusion that "incorrect responses to factual questions represent a mix of blind guessing and mistaken inferences" 1/ https://twitter.com/Matt__Graham/status/1362024833207386115
Along with @cvonbastian, I've been studying what I call "knowledge instability". While we say that ppl "know" or "don't know" factual information (e.g. the capital of Canada), in reality the accessibility of our general knowledge is constantly in flux. 2/
For example, on trivia night, I may be able to remember that the capital of Canada is Ottawa one week, but the following week I incorrectly respond that it is Toronto.
Do I know what the capital of Canada is?
3/
Do I know what the capital of Canada is?
3/
If you only saw me the first week you'd say yes, if you saw me both weeks, no. That's what @Matt__Graham is getting at here. Misperceptions are often temporary and unstable. 4/
And like @Matt__Graham we find that correct answers are more stable over time than incorrect responses.
However, where he's interpreting that instability as guessing, I'd instead blame it on natural fluctuations in what information is currently accessible in memory. 5/
However, where he's interpreting that instability as guessing, I'd instead blame it on natural fluctuations in what information is currently accessible in memory. 5/
Does this difference matter for our understanding of misinformation and misperceptions? Maybe/maybe not, but I would argue that it's more productive to think of these incorrect response as fragile forms of memory/knowledge rather than guesses and mistaken inferences 6/
Lastly, @Matt__Graham mentions that the idea that that misperceptions that are more deeply-held are more difficult to correct has not yet been tested empirically. I don't want to put him on blast bc lord knows I don't know a lot of poli sci lit, but psych has studied this 7/
And in fact for simple general knowledge facts (capital of Australia) people are actually more likely to correct errors when they are initially more confident in their answer. 8/
(video from @PillaiRaunak as a part of the @APA PsychShorts competition)
(video from @PillaiRaunak as a part of the @APA PsychShorts competition)
But for other types of beliefs, it can be much more difficult to correct misconceptions (E.g., science concepts that contradict our natural intuitions). From decades of educational research we know that it's harder to correct these deep misunderstandings than simple ignorance. 9/
This got way to long, but I'm really excited by @Matt__Graham's paper and the idea that we need to be thinking about all knowledge as constantly in flux and changing over time. h/t to @aedwardslevy for bringing it to my attention /End
