The Arctic Blast In Texas And Climate Change Statement: Many of you follow me to get accurate weather information and trustworthy analysis on atmospheric science. As such, I've been getting email questions about this event so I figure I might as well make a public statement.
It is very difficult and most of the time irresponsible to connect a storm event, cold wave, or heatwave specifically to climate changes. However, in this case, you can, in theory, connect a climate factor to this event.
I can't say if our influences were not around that this event wouldn't have happened, as climatology and history show us that it has.
However, I ask you to think back to my warning of the winter forecast and the almost non-existent sea ice around Siberia. This feature has been shown by climatologists to be a byproduct of AGW influence.
And before anyone asks, no there were no undersea volcanoes or any other geological feature that caused it, I checked.
Now, this feature had my attention because I have never seen this lack of sea ice to this degree and wasn't sure how this will end up disrupting the Polar Vortex. As you know, it certainly has. I listed it as a major wild card to the forecast in fact.
Now, I don't know if this lack of sea ice is here to stay each Fall or if this was a one-off, freak situation. I can't say if we'll see this pattern evolution again next winter or five winters from now.
However, I can say to you (and you know I am no climate alarmist), that the lack of sea ice which is a strong signal for PV disruption did set the stage for this arctic outbreak and the case can be made that AGW influences did make this event at least more likely than not.
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