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Update from Keller, TX
There are still rolling blackouts in the area. The water situation is slowing being fixed. We're under a water boil advisory. It's still cold but getting warmer.
Update from Keller, TX
There are still rolling blackouts in the area. The water situation is slowing being fixed. We're under a water boil advisory. It's still cold but getting warmer.
Things to pray about:
1. The power/water/heat issue is still very serious for many in Texas.
1. The power/water/heat issue is still very serious for many in Texas.
2. As things begin to thaw, many will discover burst pipes in their homes. This will cause home damage. It will also create a surge in demand for water...which will tax the system as it tries to recover.
3. There is already a quick politicization of the situation. People are quick to blame "green energy" or Texas-style libertarianism. Everyone is looking for a boogeyman.
My thoughts on the situation:
This is a unique environmental situation. This kind of weather has not happened in Texas in at least 30 years, maybe longer. This weather has never happened with this amount of population (i.e. this level of energy demand).
This is a unique environmental situation. This kind of weather has not happened in Texas in at least 30 years, maybe longer. This weather has never happened with this amount of population (i.e. this level of energy demand).
When there are genuinely unique circumstances, we should be slow to point fingers. The truth is Texas infrastructure is not equipped to deal with this circumstance, nor should it be.
I've spoken with friends who deal with the power grid at high levels. I've tried to read those who know what happened. Here is what I understand to be the situation.
1. There are basic market forces at play, i.e. supply and demand. The demand issue - Texas infrastructure is designed to handle peak summer weather. Homes are designed to shed heat, not retain it. When it is 100º and you want your home at 70º there is a 30º differential.
When it is 0º and you want your home at 60º there is a 60º differential. That load is much higher. The Texas system is not designed to for higher demand. There are trade-offs in design. And generally, the current system is right. But once in a generation, it fails.
2. The supply issue - There are basically 5 different forms of power generation in Texas (coal, natural gas, nuclear, solar, wind). All of these, except coal, suffered supply issues.
a. natural gas wells in Texas are not designed for 0º operation. They froze. There is tech to prevent this. NG wells in PA, ND, SD don't freeze. But TX wells don't have this tech for the same reason I didn't pay to move my snow blower from NJ to TX. It is useless 99% of the time.
b. nuclear - one reactor had an issue with a switch freezing. There was never danger of a problem, but safety redundancies shut the reactor down. Again, it was unusually cold, the system is designed for safety...it is incredibly rare, but one plant shut down.
c. solar - Panels covered in snow don't generate power. That's the same everywhere.
d. wind - Many of the W. Texas wind turbines, which account for 10-25 of Texas power, aren't designed for cold weather (noticing a trend?). There are turbines in Antarctica. Wind turbines CAN work in cold weather...but they have to be built for that. Texas turbines weren't.
Was this a bad idea? Joshua Rhodes makes this analogy: we could also build a car that could survive every crash you could possibly throw at it, but it would be very expensive and not many people would probably be able to afford it.
At some point we do a cost-benefit analysis of how much risk we are willing to take. https://www.texasmonthly.com/news/what-went-wrong-with-texass-main-electric-grid-and-could-it-have-been-prevented/
Another factor in the supply problem was that some of the switching facilities, the hardware that gets power from point A to point B. The switches failed in freezing rain and snow.
In the North, these places are enclosed in structures. In TX they are not, because 99% of the time it is better that it isn't. But 1% of the time, that decision will bite you in the butt.
One final talking point in the politicization is ERCOT. Texas operates its own power grid. There is an Eastern US grid and a Western US grid...and a Texas grid.
The E and W US grids are capacity based. This means some power plants are incentivized to simply exist. They make money just because they have potential to add capacity.
ERCOT, the Texas grid, is market based. These power plants only make money if they produce electricity that can be sold. Plants that sit idle are not incentivized.
Capacity based has a higher upper end with demand spikes. But you pay for that upper end when demand is not spiked (the other 99% of the time). The question is, do you want to pay power plants to do nothing? That cost/benefit calculus has to be figured.
So, that answer is not so neat and clean. Beware easy politicization of complex issues. Politicians gonna politicize.
Don't underestimate the ability of media (social or mainstream) to drive a wedge where a bridge is more beneficial. Division creates a simple us vs. them, which makes easy enemies, which increases anger, which drives viewership/clicks, which increases ad revenue.
There's a lot more to this, and frankly, I don't have the capacity (get it?) to understand all the market forces in modern energy policy. I know I've probably misunderstood some things, but this explanation makes sense to me.
