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(1) The Rapid Rise & More Rapid Fall of #COVID19 in North Dakota:
People say "Social Distancing & Masks", but objective evidence says, "No". ND never came close to levels observed in Arizona.
ND's Rt fell below 1.0 on Nov 2nd & never rose above it for the rest of 2020. Why?
People say "Social Distancing & Masks", but objective evidence says, "No". ND never came close to levels observed in Arizona.
ND's Rt fell below 1.0 on Nov 2nd & never rose above it for the rest of 2020. Why?
(2) First, let's review how remarkably fast both the North Dakota outbreak and recovery were.
ND reached its apex between 11/9 & 11/18, doubling its cases every 21 days, then almost immediately it fell faster than it rose, with a first half life of 14 days achieved on 12/2.
ND reached its apex between 11/9 & 11/18, doubling its cases every 21 days, then almost immediately it fell faster than it rose, with a first half life of 14 days achieved on 12/2.
(3) That 14d half life recovery was faster than New York achieved (23d) in its initial outbreak and Arizona achieved (22d) during its summer outbreak. https://twitter.com/39Magilla/status/1305893964067868674
(4) At the same time, the @IHME_UW Mask usage index for North Dakota improved to an estimated 64%, but it never surpassed the lowest levels of mask usage in Arizona since August 2020, nor was it ever above the US composite average.
(5) The @IHME_UW Composite Mobility Index tells a similar story. North Dakota did increase its restriction over this period, but never outperformed Arizona, and never outperformed the US composite average.
(6) According to the @youyanggu calculations, North Dakota had a Reproduction Number (Rt) of 1.01 on November 1st and it never rose above 1.00 again until last week.
Something fundamentally changed around that time, and it wasn't social distancing or mask compliance.
Something fundamentally changed around that time, and it wasn't social distancing or mask compliance.
(7) The story of the North Dakota outbreak & recovery is really the story of many midwestern states, which as a group, paradoxically peaked before Thanksgiving, and recovered throughout the Holidays, despite expert predictions that it would be the worst period of the pandemic.
(8) One thing that happened in North Dakota shortly before Nov 1st, 2020, was the arrival of season's first big Cold Front.
Overnight lows dropped below freezing for the first time, and they have stayed there ever since.
Overnight lows dropped below freezing for the first time, and they have stayed there ever since.
(9) These Maps by the @youyanggu group, show how North Dakota & its neighbors started as the epicenter of the fall outbreak and became the strongest recovery zone.
Starting top left:
Sep 3, 2020, Oct 18, 2020
Nov 17, 2020 & Jan 1, 2021
Starting top left:
Sep 3, 2020, Oct 18, 2020
Nov 17, 2020 & Jan 1, 2021
(10) There seems to be a Goldilocks zone between Early Fall and Deep Winter where the virus spreads much faster.
And there is probably one between Winter and Late Spring, just as there was last year when the outbreak started in March before it had time to spread.
And there is probably one between Winter and Late Spring, just as there was last year when the outbreak started in March before it had time to spread.
(11) I have speculated about the cause of this effect, but one thing I know for sure is that the orthodox medical position doesn't explain it.
Indoor humidity? Outdoor humidity? Allergy seasons? Sewer gases? Vitamin D? Runny noses? Prevailing air currents or lack thereof?
Indoor humidity? Outdoor humidity? Allergy seasons? Sewer gases? Vitamin D? Runny noses? Prevailing air currents or lack thereof?
