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I’ve been following this story for months and am struck by how confident epidemiologists are here in the US despite the seeming inability of their theories to generalize. https://apnews.com/article/india-dramatic-fall-coronavirus-cases-199585f8d5cb023abe241c4c463d88ce
This article is well written, showing the reader the high level of uncertainty around explanations for the phenomenon.
It seems plausible, at the least, that we have a limited understanding about what drives SARS-CoV-2 transmission. https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2021/02/01/962821038/the-mystery-of-indias-plummeting-covid-19-cases
It seems plausible, at the least, that we have a limited understanding about what drives SARS-CoV-2 transmission. https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2021/02/01/962821038/the-mystery-of-indias-plummeting-covid-19-cases
The lesson, for me at least, is that this is a highly complex phenomenon and that, for all we know, the spread of infection is chaotic, in the sense that small perturbations in initial conditions can yield vast, almost unpredictable changes in effects.
It may not be chaotic - infection spread may be relatively simply modeled, but we just lack that model. The problem is that we do not yet know that. Substantive policy proposals may not flow from these epistemic limitations, but it is really interesting how little we understand.
This is not an anti-epidemiology thread! It’s a pro-science thread and pro-masking and pro-testing thread.
What brought it on is that the India case reveals that our models have significant limitations. It’s a fascinating question and I’m sure we’ll get some answers.
What brought it on is that the India case reveals that our models have significant limitations. It’s a fascinating question and I’m sure we’ll get some answers.
