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For those who might be new to energy policy, I want to take a sec to explain why this tweet is so profoundly misleading. With a detour into renewables and reliability generally. [THREAD]
![For those who might be new to energy policy, I want to take a sec to explain why this tweet is so profoundly misleading. With a detour into renewables and reliability generally. [THREAD]](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Eub7zWvWYAMxJZX.png "For those who might be new to energy policy, I want to take a sec to explain why this tweet is so profoundly misleading. With a detour into renewables and reliability generally. [THREAD]")
The 31 MW Rep. Crenshaw refers to is wind power’s maximum capacity in Texas - the amount of power all those wind turbines would produce if they were all cranking away full tilt. 2/
You’ll be shocked to learn this, but … the wind doesn’t always blow. In Texas, wind turbines have an average “capacity factor” of 44%, meaning they produce that share of their maximum generation capacity over the course of a year. 3/ https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=45476#:~:text=In%20April%202019%2C%20wind%20generators,United%20States%20as%20a%20whole.
What’s more, wind power is variable. That 44% is an average. At any given moment, wind turbines may be producing more or less power than that. 4/
Again, the people who plan and operate electric grids know this. And plan for it. In TX, heading into the winter, the grid operator ERCOT expected that wind would contribute about 6,000 MW to the grid in a situation like this. http://www.ercot.com/news/releases/show/216844 5/
So, when you see a tweet suggesting that 31 GW of wind couldn’t produce 6 GW during the crisis, you need to keep all this in mind.
The difference between 36 GW and 6 GW is normal and expected. It's how things are supposed to work. 6/
The difference between 36 GW and 6 GW is normal and expected. It's how things are supposed to work. 6/
Now, there were times during the crisis when wind *did* underperform ERCOT’s expectations. But there were also times when wind and solar power *overperformed.* 7/ https://twitter.com/JesseJenkins/status/1361698545649258502?s=20
But the most important thing is that no one expected wind power to play anything more than a small supporting role in keeping the Texas grid running during a cold snap. 8/
That was the job of the thermal (mostly fossil fuel) power plants, which are supposed to run at or near 100% of capacity at times like this. No one expects the availability of gas to vary depending on the weather, right? 9/
Texas was counting on those thermal plants to provide 80% of its winter capacity. And many of them failed to answer the bell. 10/ https://www.texastribune.org/2021/02/16/natural-gas-power-storm/
This is a problem with centralized electricity grids that rely on large thermal power plants. They’re brittle. A failure in one element of the system can easily cause cascading failures throughout. 11/
One of the first projects I worked on at Frontier Group was a set of recommendations (with @shiftourpower) on responses to the 2003 Northeast blackout, when a grid failure in Ohio caused 50 million people to lose power. 12/ https://frontiergroup.org/sites/default/files/reports/US-After-the-Blackout.pdf
And there have been numerous times in recent years - including in Texas and the Northeast - when simultaneous reliance on gas for heating and electricity during winter has led to the possibility of grid failures or rolling blackouts at the worst possible moment. 13/
A lot of rhetorical energy (and fossil fuel industry money) has gone into trying to convince you that centralized electric grids powered by large thermal plants are inherently reliable. They’re not. And when they fail, they fail hard. 14/
So, yes, “blame wind” is about as dippy and inaccurate a response to this as any other scapegoating exercise designed to score political points or deflect attention from those who could have prepared for this but didn’t ... 15/
… and proposing to solve a problem caused in part by overreliance on gas with MORE GAS is like “solving” a headache by hitting your hand with a hammer. It distracts you from the pain but creates more problems in the long run. 16/
BUT, you may be asking, if we can only really count on wind to produce about 20% of its capacity at any moment in the winter, how can we power our grid mostly or entirely with renewables? 17/
It’s possible! But it requires thinking about the electricity system differently. Thankfully, many researchers have been working to figure out what it would take to have a renewable grid that’s at least as reliable as what we have now. 18/
For one thing, you can make wind and solar energy more reliable by expanding transmission networks over a wider area. If the wind’s not blowing where you are, chances are it’ll be blowing somewhere else. 19/
You can also balance various kinds of renewable generation with each other. Think of it like an orchestra - a variety of technologies coming in at different points in the symphony, each making its own contribution. 20/
In addition, wind and solar energy are becoming so cheap that you can build enough of them to meet a bigger share of peak demand - even if there are times when some of that power goes unused. 21/ https://cleantechnica.com/2020/09/07/the-best-electricity-plan-overbuild-solar-wind-power-plants/
At the same time, you can add energy storage capacity - including, but not limited to batteries - to sop up that extra renewable power for times when you might need it, and to add more grid flexibility. 22/ https://frontiergroup.org/reports/fg/making-sense-energy-storage
Lastly, there’s the demand side. Reducing energy demand through efficiency and conservation is the single best thing we can do to ease strain on the grid, save money and help people survive extreme conditions. 23/
Localizing as much electricity production, energy storage, and demand response as we can - including through the creation of microgrids - can also help prevent problems in one part of the grid from disrupting power for millions. 24/
A clean, reliable grid is possible. But it takes capable planning and new ways of thinking. Distortions and half-truths won’t get us there. They’ll just lead us to repeat the problems of the past. end/
Errata: In tweets 3 & 4 the average capacity factor for TX I listed of 44% was for a single month. It tends to be more reliably in the mid- to high 30s. Apologies for the error.
