French Covid thread
The stats are encouraging – cases down; deaths down; hospital patients down; intensive care slightly up – but the faster-moving variants are still moving fast. The govt will probably freeze restrictions until 8 March – ie no lockdown for at least 3 weeks 1/9

The government is beginning to hope that that new variants (now especially worrying in Moselle but also high in Paris area) will NOT cause the predicted, exponential increase in cases/deaths as they did in UK, IRL. Most models suggested it should already have happened by now. 2/9

But epidemiologists are still gloomily insisting that an explosion is inevitable. Pr. Macron is chairing a meeting of the Health Defence Committee today. It is expected to decide that curfews will continue (ie no lockdown) until regionally staggered school hols end on 8 March 3/9

If the figures remain good, it is rumoured that the government may ease restrictions - opening museums? shortening the curfew? - from late March. On verra or on Veran. 4/9

On vaccines things are looking better. As of last night, 2,347,088 people had received a 1st jab and 815,547 a second. In 16 days in Feb, 1.6m shots were given – slightly more than in 35 days to end Jan. France will struggle, however, to hit its target of 4m shots this month. 5/9

Stats wizard Tom Forth in the interesting thread below estimates that France’s decision to give priority to care home residents (80% now 1st jabbed maybe 60% 2nd jabbed ) may already be beginning to pay off in the reduction of the daily death rate… 6/9 https://twitter.com/thomasforth/status/1360255707837308928?s=20