My top 3 EU banking predictions for 2021:
- Industry lobbyists will argue Brussels should ignore global bank-capital rules, and succeed
- A major bank will collapse & be bailed out with public money
- EU policymakers will vow to never let this happen again

(All three are so laughably easy to predict I will basically already be collecting my winnings)

1) is already basically a done deal. See e.g. https://mlexmarketinsight.com/insights-center/editors-picks/area-of-expertise/financial-services/eu-banks-may-still-get-output-floor-capital-exemption-despite-global-rules-docs-show

2) is in principle not supposed to happen any more. But it's been done multiple times in recent years (Veneto, NordLB). And nobody, not even people paid to believe the opposite, is in any doubt that a major lender in trouble would call its finance minister.

So now we just have to sit back and wait for (3)

Well at least banks are preparing for the mess... or are they? c.30, count 'em, dots in Box 1 means 30 major eurozone banks not making enough provision for the coming crisis. Concentrated in countries most hit by Covid.