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1/5 My thoughts on how realistic Biden’s goal of 400M doses by 5/31 and 600M by 7/31 really is, a very short thread!
TL;DR his goals are conservative if we keep up the increased pace of daily doses
TL;DR his goals are conservative if we keep up the increased pace of daily doses
2/5 If you plot the number of doses the Biden Admin has given since 1/19/21 (day 0) up until now, it looks like this graph. It’s quite remarkable that a simple quadratic equation gives a 0.999 R squared goodness of fit!
3/5 If you now take the equation of this curve and just plot it almost 200 days into the future, you get a projection of sorts. I’ve added Biden’s goals of 400M & 600M doses as red dots on the same graph.
4/5 It looks like they are betting that the rate of vaccinations will continue to increase steadily & that they will easily get to 400M by 5/31. In fact, the 600M mark looks pretty conservative if things continue as they have. We could arguably get to 600M by end of June! 
5/5 I’m not sure how realistic this is, but there’s certainly a strong trend in the data if you believe in math and science. I hope it continues!
Interesting: if we meet the goal, we’ll be giving out over 5M shots per day come 5/31, that’s more than 3x our current rate of 1.6M
Interesting: if we meet the goal, we’ll be giving out over 5M shots per day come 5/31, that’s more than 3x our current rate of 1.6M
Bonus: these goals came from the CNN town hall Mr. Biden had tonight.
Double bonus: follow @vacprogbot for up to date progress. Maybe even sign up for the text messages?
https://www.cnn.com/2021/02/16/politics/joe-biden-town-hall-takeaways/index.html
Double bonus: follow @vacprogbot for up to date progress. Maybe even sign up for the text messages?
https://www.cnn.com/2021/02/16/politics/joe-biden-town-hall-takeaways/index.html
