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Can we talk about Long Covid/Long-haul Covid for a min? I keep hearing over and over from younger people that this is what they are most afraid of.
How prevalent is it really? Should we be terrified of it?
Follow my logic and see what you think.
(Thread)
How prevalent is it really? Should we be terrified of it?
Follow my logic and see what you think.
(Thread)
1/ The largest study on Long Covid (4M people) concludes that only 1.5-2% of those infected still have symptoms after 3 months. Other studies that found larger % were based on hospitalized patients only, had tiny sample sizes or were pure junk-science.
https://institute.global/sites/default/files/articles/Long-Covid-Reviewing-the-Science-and-Assessing-the-Risk.pdf
https://institute.global/sites/default/files/articles/Long-Covid-Reviewing-the-Science-and-Assessing-the-Risk.pdf
2/ But... all Long Covid studies are based on known cases only. Studies show 6-25x the number of known cases go undetected.
Let’s use 10x as a conservative estimate for this purpose... this brings your chances of getting long Covid down to 0.15-0.2%.
https://www.ama-assn.org/delivering-care/public-health/how-many-covid-19-cases-are-going-undetected
Let’s use 10x as a conservative estimate for this purpose... this brings your chances of getting long Covid down to 0.15-0.2%.
https://www.ama-assn.org/delivering-care/public-health/how-many-covid-19-cases-are-going-undetected
3/ Before you argue that some untested people may have long Covid too, note that those with 5 or more Covid symptoms were more likely to report long Covid and those with this many symptoms would also likely have been tested. But yes, it is “possible”.
4/ Now, let’s consider the symptoms of long Covid. How many of these can be diagnosed by a doctor and how many are self diagnosed? How many are severe and how many are mild?
5/ Next, let’s consider the intense/debilitating amounts of fear/paranoia/anxiety around Covid.
“Mass fear of COVID-19, termed as “coronaphobia”, has generated a plethora of psychiatric manifestations across the different strata of the society.” https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7255207/
“Mass fear of COVID-19, termed as “coronaphobia”, has generated a plethora of psychiatric manifestations across the different strata of the society.” https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7255207/
6/ Putting this into context, we must question how many of these 0.2% of Long Covid cases after 3 months are genuine and how many are a result of “psychosomatic” illnesses or "psychogenic pain".
https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20160407-the-very-real-pain-of-imaginary-illnesses
https://www.google.ca/amp/s/www.news-medical.net/amp/health/What-is-Psychogenic-Pain.aspx
https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20160407-the-very-real-pain-of-imaginary-illnesses
https://www.google.ca/amp/s/www.news-medical.net/amp/health/What-is-Psychogenic-Pain.aspx
7/ There is clearly no way to determine the final risk statistic, but based on the above discussion, I would suggest that it’s safe to estimate genuine Long Covid cases after 3 months would be even less than the 0.2% figure calculated above.
8/ Before you argue that even 0.2% is a huge number of people when over 100M people worldwide have been infected, I agree. But we have to keep in mind that most of the symptoms are mild and will most likely eventually go away, although we don’t know yet how many are permanent.
9/ Finally, we must acknowledge that Long Covid is not a new phenomenon. It is also prevalent with the flu and other viruses. Its actual name is Post Viral Syndrome. There is no credible evidence of any kind that its impact or prevalence is greater with Covid vs. other viruses. https://twitter.com/heckofaliberal/status/1287549725567197184
10/ So should we take Long Covid seriously? Definitely. We should have medical supports in place, invest resources into treatment and mental health services and continue to further research risk, impact, prevalence, how long symptoms last, etc. https://www.thelancet.com/journals/ebiom/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)32662-3/fulltext
11/ So should we be terrified of Long Covid? NO. The chances of having long lasting symptoms after Covid are very low based on the largest study to date, symptoms are generally mild, and there is no credible evidence that prevalence is any different than with the flu.
12/ And before you try and dismiss this thread with an ad hominem argument (because I’m not a scientist or doctor) recognize that you don’t need to be either to read scientific studies and apply critical thinking skills. Try it for yourself!
