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ERCOT, the Q&A thread [so far].
Q: What is going on?
A: The current weather event in Texas is beyond anything that we have experienced in modern memory. I don’t recall another time when all 254 counties in TX were under a winter storm warning. 1/
![ERCOT, the Q&A thread [so far].Q: What is going on?A: The current weather event in Texas is beyond anything that we have experienced in modern memory. I don’t recall another time when all 254 counties in TX were under a winter storm warning. 1/](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EuZBxweVEAED8Qd.jpg "ERCOT, the Q&A thread [so far].Q: What is going on?A: The current weather event in Texas is beyond anything that we have experienced in modern memory. I don’t recall another time when all 254 counties in TX were under a winter storm warning. 1/")
Q: What is going on?
A: The current weather event in Texas is beyond anything that we have experienced in modern memory. I don’t recall another time when all 254 counties in TX were under a winter storm warning. 1/
Q: Why is the power out?
A: The electricity grid has to be balanced at all times. Every bit of electricity that is being consumed has to essentially be instantly generated in a power plant (or discharged from a battery)... 2/
A: The electricity grid has to be balanced at all times. Every bit of electricity that is being consumed has to essentially be instantly generated in a power plant (or discharged from a battery)... 2/
... If supply & demand get very far out of balance, the entire system can go down. Right now, the weather is driving demand very high, so high we don’t have enough supply to cover demand, thus to keep the whole system stable, we have to reduce some demand, i.e., blackouts 3/
Q: Why don’t we have enough power for everyone like we do in the summer peaks?
A: There were about ~14GW of power plants that were down for maintenance before this event started. Since then, another ~16GW have gone offline. We have also had some ice issues with some wind farms.
A: There were about ~14GW of power plants that were down for maintenance before this event started. Since then, another ~16GW have gone offline. We have also had some ice issues with some wind farms.
Q: Why did more power plants go offline?
A: We are having issues getting fuel to some of our natural gas power plants. B/c 1) some gas wells froze, reducing supply, & 2) demand for natural gas heating in homes at all time high (they get priority)....
A: We are having issues getting fuel to some of our natural gas power plants. B/c 1) some gas wells froze, reducing supply, & 2) demand for natural gas heating in homes at all time high (they get priority)....
... in his case, we have had to divert gas away from power plants to homes, or are not able to provide gas at high enough pressure for power plants to operate. It seems some power plants have also had trouble getting the cooling water that they need to operate.
Q: Is wind responsible for bringing down the Texas grid?
A: Of course not, there is no single resource to blame for this. We usually think of peak events happening over a couple of hours, this one is lasting days. Wind has been below expected output, but so have other sources.
A: Of course not, there is no single resource to blame for this. We usually think of peak events happening over a couple of hours, this one is lasting days. Wind has been below expected output, but so have other sources.
Q: Couldn’t they have done something to prevent this?
A: Once the temperatures showed up on the weather report, there is nothing that really can be done. It takes time to finish the maintenance and years to build new infrastructure.
A: Once the temperatures showed up on the weather report, there is nothing that really can be done. It takes time to finish the maintenance and years to build new infrastructure.
Q: Could we have prevented this?
A: Sure, we could build a electric (& gas) grid that are more resilient than what we have, but it will likely cost more. We will have to make a decision as a society if we believe the chance of this type of event happening again is worth the cost.
A: Sure, we could build a electric (& gas) grid that are more resilient than what we have, but it will likely cost more. We will have to make a decision as a society if we believe the chance of this type of event happening again is worth the cost.
Q: Who can we blame for this?
A: I understand the frustration (I was one of the 4M without power in the cold). But there doesn’t appear to be any source of the system that was untouched by this and demand is so far beyond what our historical peaks would have us plan for.
A: I understand the frustration (I was one of the 4M without power in the cold). But there doesn’t appear to be any source of the system that was untouched by this and demand is so far beyond what our historical peaks would have us plan for.
Q: What can we do going forward?
A: 1) We can update our winter peak resource adequacy assumptions to better reflect weather like this and make sure that we have the proper market mechanisms to incentivize generation (and required fuel) additions that meet those requirements...
A: 1) We can update our winter peak resource adequacy assumptions to better reflect weather like this and make sure that we have the proper market mechanisms to incentivize generation (and required fuel) additions that meet those requirements...
2) We can take a harder look at better interconnecting the disparate grids to better move power from regions that might have excess when we need energy. This might have to be national in scale to deal with very large weather systems...
Q: When will this end?
A: Unfortunately, we probably won’t all get power back until the weather warms enough to reduce the massive amount of heating demand that is driving the supply/demand imbalance and we have enough gas to fully fuel our thermal fleet.
A: Unfortunately, we probably won’t all get power back until the weather warms enough to reduce the massive amount of heating demand that is driving the supply/demand imbalance and we have enough gas to fully fuel our thermal fleet.
Q: Would a different, or a regulated market structure have prevented this from happening?
A: I don't think so. Market planners make resource adequacy decisions based on the same kinds of load forecasts that ERCOT used in its winter reserve margin calculations...
A: I don't think so. Market planners make resource adequacy decisions based on the same kinds of load forecasts that ERCOT used in its winter reserve margin calculations...
All of the scenarios used to calculate the capacity needed for our winter peak showed that we would have enough capacity to keep the lights on. Obviously those forecasts were wrong, but I don't see how a centralized grid planner would have forecasted this event any better.
