1) On the same day authorities announced 86 probable cases of the more contagious #COVID19 variants in Quebec, Premier François Legault announced he will reopen movie theatres, public pools and arenas on Feb. 26. In this thread, I will examine these contradictory developments.

2) The probable cases were confirmed mostly in Montreal and likely involve the B117 variant that originated in the U.K. The results followed the screening of 925 positive samples, but Health Minister Christian Dubé warned this does not mean the probability rate is 9.3%.

3) Dubé suggested it may be 2%, which appears to be the case in Laval. But given that the B117 variant is at least 50% more transmissible than the current so-called wild type, it may be only a matter of time before the B117 strain becomes dominant in the greater Montreal region.

4) For this reason, Legault’s announcement of the reopening of cinemas and pools in time for Quebec’s March break raises questions. Authorities are currently investigating whether the B117 variant may be driving #COVID19 clusters in Montreal prisons. https://montrealgazette.com/news/local-news/bordeaux-and-three-other-quebec-jails-hit-with-covid-19-wave

5) And http://covidecolesquebec.org  is reporting tonight the closing of a third Montreal school, École des Grands Êtres, after a #COVID19 outbreak and a presumptive case of a variant. This follows confirmed and presumptive variants at Collège Stanislas and Yechiva Yavne last week.

6) Think about Montreal’s predicament for a moment. Shopping malls are once again packed with little #PhysicalDistancing. Cinemas and public pools will soon reopen. The city’s hospital emergency rooms are again overcrowded. And the B117 variant is spreading.

7) The precautionary principle would suggest that in addition to maintaining the nightly curfew, Quebec should reconsider reopening cinemas, pools and hockey arenas. At present, only 3.1% of the Quebec population has been vaccinated against #COVID19 with one dose. Why tempt fate?

8) Meanwhile, Montreal remained in red zone territory Tuesday, with a seven-day rolling average of 20.47 cases per 100,000 residents. For now, the number of #COVID19 cases appears to be trending downward, as the chart below indicates.

9) A little more than two weeks after retail stores were allowed to reopen, the province on Tuesday reported that the number of #COVID19 outbreaks in the workplace rose by five to 332. But clusters declined in all other sectors.

10) Premier Legault was asked Tuesday whether Quebec might re-impose a lockdown similar to the one last spring should the variants lead to a massive #COVID19 resurgence. Legault seemed taken aback by the question. I thought the question was perfectly valid. End of thread.