Thrilled to have my essay on how the WTO changed China published in @ForeignAffairs. Rather than judge China’s WTO entry in terms of success/failure, we need to understand the ways WTO membership led to positive change within China & why such reforms stalled & reversed. (1/n) https://twitter.com/perryworldhouse/status/1361684428532154369

For a few years, China’s accession bolstered reformists and helped authorities push through necessary changes. But reform impetus wavered, and other actors within China pushed back, steering the economy toward greater state control. 2/

It’s not impossible to foster change in China, but it will be uneven, contested, and require ongoing pressure and engagement from the outside. 3/

Some Chinese state and nonstate actors see their interests as aligned with international economic rules; others seek to exploit gaps in global governance. Some dependably behave as agents of Beijing, others actively subvert national policy in pursuit of their own interests. 4/

These dynamics persist even as Xi has consolidated CCP rule over many aspects of Chinese life: China’s global economic posture remains mostly the product of the country’s messy internal politics, not the result of a coordinated master plan. 5/

This complicates matters for Washington and other governments. Traditional state-to-state diplomacy, centered on communications between capitals, is necessary but insufficient. 6/

We need a multipronged approach to engage with China at different levels. A policy of hostility that overlooks the diversity of interests driving China’s massive economy is counterproductive. 7/

The sweeping liberalization that China embarked on 20 yrs ago showed the real effects of joining the WTO. 8/

But it was naive to expect China to fully open its economy and integrate into the international trading system, just as it is simplistic now to think China has abandoned liberal reform for the familiar comforts of state capitalism. 9/

The Chinese economy is neither entirely marketized nor completely state-controlled, and any sensible China policy cannot treat the system as a monolith. End/