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In the sequel to "Drones Over Riyadh", here is "Rockets over Erbil" - Thread to follow @WashInstitute https://bit.ly/3ufz1nA
The piece makes a simple point: the complexity of dealing with this Erbil attack is self-generated by the US. It is not difficult, at all, to attribute this attack: the weight of evidence says Asaib Ahl al-Haq. The complexity is that USG seeks a new solution to an old problem.
The Biden administration is getting an early reminder of how hard it is to deter someone who you are also negotiating with. It should be simple; keep attacking me, and we stop talking. But the nuclear file outweighs the protection of US persons & partners. Unsustainable.
Avril Haines said the US intel community will now speak truth to power: we’ll see. Truth sometimes compels hard choices. Evidence will be quickly available at TS level. Will it be used or shelved?
Its unclear & immaterial that Iran ordered this attack. 1) Iran is the grownup that gave a toddler (AAH) a loaded gun. 2) AAH does rash stuff for its own political reasons, to be seen to lead the Muqawama. AAH wants to kill Americans. It probably doesn’t want an Iran-US deal.
Point is: whether Iran intended this to test Biden credibility tor not, it is now a test. And whether Iran ordered this attack or not, Iran CAN restrain these kinds of attacks if it wishes to. Surely talks should be conditioned on, as a nicety, restraining attacks on Americans?
I think things have moved on a bit from 2016. Since then IRGCQF had its “four Arab capitals” moment (Beirut, Syria, Sanaa, Baghdad) and the proxies are stronger than ever. They’re pushing harder since Jan 21, esp in Yemen. This is as important to them, and to us, as nukes.
Simple policy thought one: be transparent, be honest on intel, expose the enemy networks. It freaks them out and makes them shy. Proven de-escalation method without kinetics.
Simple policy two: condition US-Iran talks and sanctions relief on a deescalation of militia actions around the region. Let Iran know they are accountable for controlling what they made.
