Read on Twitter
1/Y
Ivor Cummins ( @FatEmperor) lists articles he claims shows lockdowns are not effective. The Great Barrington Declaration exploited this list.
This thread will debunk Cummins' claim, while giving some further context.
https://thefatemperor.com/published-papers-and-data-on-lockdown-weak-efficacy-and-lockdown-huge-harms/ https://twitter.com/gbdeclaration/status/1343206959286202368
Ivor Cummins ( @FatEmperor) lists articles he claims shows lockdowns are not effective. The Great Barrington Declaration exploited this list.
This thread will debunk Cummins' claim, while giving some further context.
https://thefatemperor.com/published-papers-and-data-on-lockdown-weak-efficacy-and-lockdown-huge-harms/ https://twitter.com/gbdeclaration/status/1343206959286202368
2/Y
Potholer54 made a video rebutting Cummins' points, @theresphysics corrected Cummins' misrepresentation of his research, and @dr_barrett made a rebuttal thread as well:
https://twitter.com/dr_barrett/status/1360940446650929163
https://twitter.com/theresphysics/status/1340576899320430593
https://twitter.com/theresphysics/status/1344239036098097152
https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1340575788593274880
Potholer54 made a video rebutting Cummins' points, @theresphysics corrected Cummins' misrepresentation of his research, and @dr_barrett made a rebuttal thread as well:
https://twitter.com/dr_barrett/status/1360940446650929163
https://twitter.com/theresphysics/status/1340576899320430593
https://twitter.com/theresphysics/status/1344239036098097152
https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1340575788593274880
3/Y
Cummins responded to @dr_barrett's thread with a video that is... ridiculous:
There's a comment thread rebutting Cummin's response video:
I'll summarize some of the thread's points here.
https://twitter.com/FatEmperor/status/1361365800590991360
Cummins responded to @dr_barrett's thread with a video that is... ridiculous:
There's a comment thread rebutting Cummin's response video:
I'll summarize some of the thread's points here.
https://twitter.com/FatEmperor/status/1361365800590991360
4/Y
Cummins screws up on endogeneity, by not fully accounting for the fact that lockdowns often occur because COVID-19 deaths/day and cases/day are increasing.
@zorinaq explained this, as have others:
https://archive.is/JjhaE#selection-441.0-453.578
https://twitter.com/AndreasShrugged/status/1349464785398718464
Cummins screws up on endogeneity, by not fully accounting for the fact that lockdowns often occur because COVID-19 deaths/day and cases/day are increasing.
@zorinaq explained this, as have others:
https://archive.is/JjhaE#selection-441.0-453.578
https://twitter.com/AndreasShrugged/status/1349464785398718464
5/Y
Plenty of papers show lockdowns work. Strangely, Cummins evades them and instead includes many non-peer-reviewed sources in his list. Cummins also pretends a paper was published in the Lancet, when it actually wasn't.
https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1009271933056274432
Plenty of papers show lockdowns work. Strangely, Cummins evades them and instead includes many non-peer-reviewed sources in his list. Cummins also pretends a paper was published in the Lancet, when it actually wasn't.
https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1009271933056274432
6/Y
Cummins video then descends into conspiracism about Dr. Ken Rice ( @theresphysics), who's research Cummins misrepresents.
Dr. Rice's research actually shows caution is needed coming out of lockdown:
https://twitter.com/theresphysics/status/1344239036098097152
https://twitter.com/theresphysics/status/1340576899320430593
Cummins video then descends into conspiracism about Dr. Ken Rice ( @theresphysics), who's research Cummins misrepresents.
Dr. Rice's research actually shows caution is needed coming out of lockdown:
https://twitter.com/theresphysics/status/1344239036098097152
https://twitter.com/theresphysics/status/1340576899320430593
7/Y
Next, Cummins discusses a 2009 article from Dr. Marc Lipsitch ( @mlipsitch). The paper is not about lockdowns being ineffective against COVID-19:
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2652751/
Cummins knows this, so he's being deceptive when he includes in a list entitled:
https://thefatemperor.com/published-papers-and-data-on-lockdown-weak-efficacy-and-lockdown-huge-harms/
Next, Cummins discusses a 2009 article from Dr. Marc Lipsitch ( @mlipsitch). The paper is not about lockdowns being ineffective against COVID-19:
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2652751/
Cummins knows this, so he's being deceptive when he includes in a list entitled:
https://thefatemperor.com/published-papers-and-data-on-lockdown-weak-efficacy-and-lockdown-huge-harms/
8/Y
Things get ludicrous when Cummins discusses Belarus at the 10 minute mark in his video.
To Cummins followers:
Many of you like to think you and Cummins are skeptical truth-seekers, who don't fall for disinformation.
So how did you fall for this?
https://twitter.com/LajXtra/status/1361380680337391617
Things get ludicrous when Cummins discusses Belarus at the 10 minute mark in his video.
To Cummins followers:
Many of you like to think you and Cummins are skeptical truth-seekers, who don't fall for disinformation.
So how did you fall for this?
https://twitter.com/LajXtra/status/1361380680337391617
9/Y
For context:
Belarus is a repressive dictatorship. Many repressive regimes likely fake their COVID-19 statistics to make it look like they're succeeding. So I've been skeptical of Belarus' COVID-19 statistics for months.
https://twitter.com/GidMK/status/1262960102094581762
https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1277846849068716034
For context:
Belarus is a repressive dictatorship. Many repressive regimes likely fake their COVID-19 statistics to make it look like they're succeeding. So I've been skeptical of Belarus' COVID-19 statistics for months.
https://twitter.com/GidMK/status/1262960102094581762
https://twitter.com/AtomsksSanakan/status/1277846849068716034
10/Y
But Cummins uncritically accepts Belarus' COVID-19 statistics, since they fit his narrative (Belarus didn't lockdown and its reported stats look fine).
Cummins cites the non-peer-reviewed press piece below to do that. That piece ends as follows:
https://www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m3543
But Cummins uncritically accepts Belarus' COVID-19 statistics, since they fit his narrative (Belarus didn't lockdown and its reported stats look fine).
Cummins cites the non-peer-reviewed press piece below to do that. That piece ends as follows:
https://www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m3543
11/Y
So if Cummins read his source, then he should look up excess deaths for Belarus. Yet he probably didn't
But if he's going to a cite a non-peer-reviewed source on this, then I will as well from @hippopedoid on excess deaths:
https://twitter.com/ArielKarlinsky/status/1357333460659167232
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.01.27.21250604v1.full-text
So if Cummins read his source, then he should look up excess deaths for Belarus. Yet he probably didn't
But if he's going to a cite a non-peer-reviewed source on this, then I will as well from @hippopedoid on excess deaths:
https://twitter.com/ArielKarlinsky/status/1357333460659167232
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.01.27.21250604v1.full-text
12/Y
So Belarus' COVID-19 statistics are likely fake, using the metric from Cummins' source. He uses them anyway.
@GidMK, would it make sense to check if the final digits for their numbers are random?
http://data.un.org/Data.aspx?q=deaths+by+month&d=POP&f=tableCode%3a65%3bcountryCode%3a112%3brefYear%3a2010%2c2011%2c2012%2c2013%2c2014%2c2015%2c2016%2c2017%2c2018%2c2019%2c2020&c=2,3,8,13,14&s=_countryEnglishNameOrderBy:asc,refYear:desc,areaCode:asc&v=1
https://belarusfeed.com/un-demographic-statistics-mortality-rate-belarus/
So Belarus' COVID-19 statistics are likely fake, using the metric from Cummins' source. He uses them anyway.
@GidMK, would it make sense to check if the final digits for their numbers are random?
http://data.un.org/Data.aspx?q=deaths+by+month&d=POP&f=tableCode%3a65%3bcountryCode%3a112%3brefYear%3a2010%2c2011%2c2012%2c2013%2c2014%2c2015%2c2016%2c2017%2c2018%2c2019%2c2020&c=2,3,8,13,14&s=_countryEnglishNameOrderBy:asc,refYear:desc,areaCode:asc&v=1
https://belarusfeed.com/un-demographic-statistics-mortality-rate-belarus/
13/Y
At this point, sensible people would not trust Cummins, since (at best) he was gullible + biased enough to fall for obvious disinformation.
...Oh, but it gets worse.
Cummins then cites a non-peer-reviewed analysis from PANDA. Yes, *that* PANDA. https://twitter.com/malar0ne/status/1353934042236784640
At this point, sensible people would not trust Cummins, since (at best) he was gullible + biased enough to fall for obvious disinformation.
...Oh, but it gets worse.
Cummins then cites a non-peer-reviewed analysis from PANDA. Yes, *that* PANDA. https://twitter.com/malar0ne/status/1353934042236784640
