C’mon FLORIDA! I don’t wanna be that epidemiologist dude who has to remind @GovRonDeSantis daily that he has a civic responsibility to stop the outbreak of #B117 in his state & its spread to rest of 🇺🇸. B117 is more contagious #COVID19 & trouble. 🧵on why.
2) #B117 is surging, but especially in Florida. It is fastest surging there and doubling likely every 9 days, faster than the rest of the US. https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1358468446548357123
3) Florida seems to be experiencing the faster rate of growth. (Maybe because @RonDeSantisFL @GovRonDeSantis hasn’t put in much mitigation). #B117 will become dominant in Florida sooner... likely by March 8th. It’s much more contagious too.
4) Why is #B117 worse than other #SARSCoV2? It carries a package of mutations, including many which change the structure of the spike protein that enhance its ability to bind to human ACE2 receptor, yielding higher viral loads, and may shed more virus when coughing or sneezing.
5) Here is what is going to happen... currently R is ~0.9 in many places, but with the more infectious #B117, the R will jump ~50% approximately. And it is inevitable (all CDC and Danish models say this) that B117 will take over as the dominant variant soon. Here is Alberta 🇨🇦
6) Danish models show the same thing. Unless we slam the R current to <0.7, but optimally <0.6 right now, we will be in a world of trouble soon.
7) Here is what happened to one village in Italy 🇮🇹 when infected with #B117. 10% of the entire town. 60% infected are kids. https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1357599530296958982
8) There really is two diverging pandemics occurring. Old variant is being held in check. But #B117 is growing from the underbelly. https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1357566949404905472
9) Germany is also scared shitless. They just put in a new lockdown because their models are pretty depressing about #B117 too. https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1358474824922841090
10) If we let B117 spread further... it can acquire new further worse mutations that makes it evade immunity even more. Especially if exposed to immunocompromised people. Don’t let more mutations happen in Florida. Stop it now. https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1358481447707947010
11) Fauci is warning about the new mutations too. @GovRonDeSantis - be a hero to America, not a Trump toady anymore. You don’t need him. Heed Fauci instead on this, if you don’t heed me. https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1358629305048252416
12) Don’t let this be your legacy @RonDeSantisFL. Let it be that you’re a hero for stopping #B117. People will give you credit if you do, @GovRonDeSantis, I promise. https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1358645754248761346
13) The data is pretty clear what will happen. Think of your seniors—your voters. They will never forgive you @GovRonDeSantis if you let this new #B117 variant run loose on your watch. You can’t blame China or Cuomo for this. This is all in your hands. Eyes of world watching FL. https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1359871587126763521
14) Some think I’m wasting my breath trying to convince @GovRonDeSantis. But fundamentally I hope @RonDeSantisFL can find it in his heart to care at least for his own political base of voters (elderly being infected), and his own political self interest that he might care.
15) When Germany 🇩🇪 is concerned like this (with much less B117 than Florida), you know this is bad @GovRonDeSantis. Politically it is a no win situation if Florida is blamed for unleashing #B117 upon the state or rest of country. https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1359785772195414028
16) And I’ve been told @GovRonDeSantis’s staff read tweets to him when a post gets enough traction and public interest. So please share this thread’s top post as much as you can. But be respectful. We want @RonDeSantisFL to understand we want him to act and save lives more.
17) Don’t blow this all off on blue states. Because fact is #B117 outbreak is the fastest surging in Florida. https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1361035076805554184?s=21
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