Some market thoughts:
- GBTC is back to 10%, seems like retail is bidding
- Supply on books through 50k was wiped this morning
- Convertible note from Saylor seems timed to break a key psych level like last time (20k / 50k)
- Funding / basis high, but not maxed

- Long consolidation under the 50k level likely to lead to a trending move, chop over next few days seems unlikely
- Yields are picking up, should hurt bonds and gold. New type of seller might appear on Bitcoin (momo funds who bet on BTC as a rates play, coming in to sell)

- 1 week calls are getting more bid, coming in a bit
- Leverage in the system at 1.83% for Bitcoin, 3.01% for ETH (!!)

Conclusions: ETH/BTC less attractive -- ETH highly levered, watch yields (top of next move could coincide), if you want to buy calls do it now, bias to topside over next 2 weeks (thinking ~60s as bet on Saylor winning again, with help from retail investors)

Thinking about this more, it seems like the GBTC bid is coming from MSTR. Would have expected it to move today on the convert announcement but it didn't, think the -25% day on a -3% day from BTC scared people off -- cycling BTC exposure to GBTC