Wind power isn't failing in Texas. In fact, it may be the only part of the system still working BETTER than designed. Let's take a look at why the Lone Star State is chilling in the dark. … 1/24 (and yes, I know that's a lot)

On President’s Day, many Texans received a gift even less welcome than a day plagued by discount mattress ads. Much of the state was hit by blackouts lasting for hours. Some are still going. This came on a day when Texas is literally colder than Alaska. … 2/24

The record cold comes because climate change has destabilized the systems that normally spin cold air around the North Pole. Now that system wobbles like a spinning top in the last unsteady stages before collapse. This week, that wobble is tilted toward the central U.S. … 3/24

Fox News and assorted guests have spent the last two days railing about how the problem is Texas’ use of wind energy and blaming "frozen turbines" for the blackout. If only Texas relied on burning more coal / oil / gas / witches / liberals, then surely all would be well! … 4/24

Wind is not the problem. As Ars Technica pointed out on Monday, wind in Texas is currently working at OVER 100% of its projected capacity. The real problem is: Texas electrical grid is working exactly as designed. Because the profits are better this way. … 5/24

Texas’ odd grid goes back to World War II, when a group of Texas utilities created a Texas-only system that barely brushed other states. That was further codified in the 1970s, when the ERCOT took charge and began tinkering with a formula to “incentivize” utilities. … 6/24

ERCOT created a system were prices can float based on momentary spikes in demand. Prices can soar to several dollars per kilowatt/hour, or literally be in negative territory when the demand fails to meet the base level of generation by the system. … 7/24

Consumers in Texas don't really buy electricity. They buy a sort of “electricity insurance,” one in which providers contract to provide them power at a semi-fixed price (that's well above median market cost). This, like medial insurance, creates another level for profit. … 8/24

But, in the ERCOT market, sometimes the insurance is worth it. On Monday electricity in Texas approached a rate that would make the average home monthly bill around $96,000. So … that’s quite high. … 9/24

If any of this—purposely constrained market, free floating prices subject to wild changes, consumers facing blackouts—rings a little bell at the back of your head, there’s also this: Enron got its start dabbling in these markets from it’s Houston, TX HQ in the 1980s. … 10/24

Texas is facing the collapse of a badly overloaded system, leading to extended outages, simply because that’s the way the system is designed to work. The incentive in Texas is to provide for exactly as much power as needed, and not one hamster-wheel-driven watt more. … 11/24

How did wind come into it? That’s also profits. Texas doesn’t have over 10,700 wind turbines because Texans decided they liked the look, or because there was a sudden inspiration to “go green.” Texas has wind power because wind power is so insanely cheap. … 12/24

Wind is SO cheap that producing power from wind turbines is less than the cost of operating a coal-fired power plant. Someone could build coal plants for free, give them to the utilities, and just running them would still cost more than buying wind turbines from scratch. … 13/24

What Texas has now is a system that’s composed of gas, wind, a lingering set of older coal plants, and a modest amount of nuclear. All of it just enough to provide power when Texas hits those hot summer days when every AC in Dallas goes to “maximum cool.” … 14/24

So, what went wrong on Monday? It wasn’t “frozen turbines,” no matter what Fox News says. Wind is more than keeping up with its share of the projected load. This doesn’t seem like a great day to climb a 300’ tower to work on a turbine (brrrrrr). But that’s not the issue. … 15/24

Part of the issue comes down to that other item at the top of Texas’ power mix — natural gas. In cold weather, natural gas is in demand because it can be used directly for home heating. That’s not just driving up the price of gas, but also limiting it’s availability. … 16/24

The system of pipelines that carry the gas around is also built to match a certain level of demand. Pipelines are expensive. Companies don’t build them “just in case.” High prices and limited availability mean that Texas gas plants are underperforming. That's part one. … 17/24

Texas' coal plants are also underperforming. It’s not clear why, but as someone with 30+ years in the industry, I have suspicions: Did utilities pay extra to treat the coal with antifreeze so that it comes out of train cars more readily in extreme weather? I bet not. … 18/24

What's wrong with the electrical system in Texas is there’s simply not enough of it. As demand has increased, more capacity has been added, but only enough to keep things at that ragged edge. Because that’s the most profitable point for everyone in this pocket-market. … 19/24

Peak demand is usually found in summer, when it's 100 outside and every Texan wants it to be 70 inside. So the system is designed to overcome that 30 degree difference. Right now, people are trying to make their homes 70, and the temperature is 10. … 20/24

There’s just not enough power out there to overcome the temperature gradient they're facing. Making it worse is that homes in Texas are generally designed around the idea of keeping heat out, rather than holding it in. … 21/24

Put it all together, and: Demand far exceeded supply, prices went through the roof, and the grid itself failed as the big boy equivalent of breakers tripped everywhere. If Texas had robust connections to other grids, it might have stabilized. That's not ERCOT's design. … 22/24

What will happen now? Probably not much. Producers could add additional capacity (if they do, that capacity will almost certainly come from more wind). But don’t expect much. Because if they add power too quickly, there will be excess capacity. And low profits. … 23/24

Anyway, Fox will blame it on wind power, assisted by "experts" like Rick Perry, who spent Monday complaining that America needs to rely more on “compact fusion reactors.”

Maybe we could also get some dilithium crystals. I hear they’re good. 24/24