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PREDICTION: Catastrophic sky-is-falling budget projections for the next fiscal year based on wildly unrealistically pessimistic assumptions will be just as wrong as they were for this fiscal year. https://www.wpri.com/news/politics-government/ri-on-track-to-finish-budget-year-with-44-million-surplus/?fbclid=IwAR0H_4NwtENh210htveusYRK0vVIVf6fxCrrLSwWgsrqnc8KCbQkjH1Kkhk
Let’s break down the ridiculous assumptions behind the catastrophic budget projections, a thread:
ASSUMPTION 1: Congress won’t pass Biden’s very likely to pass stimulus package, which will alone push us into the territory where we can afford substantial relief spending on top of zeroing out our deficit. I suggest we send out $500 checks to everyone in Rhode Island. https://twitter.com/senjackreed/status/1359573349177909249
ASSUMPTION 2: FEMA reimbursement will be at 75%, not the 100% @JoeBiden moved it to via executive order. https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/presidential-actions/2021/01/21/extend-federal-support-to-governors-use-of-national-guard-to-respond-to-covid-19-and-to-increase-reimbursement-and-other-assistance-provided-to-states/
ASSUMPTION 3: RI will continue to get the same raw deal on what expenses were FEMA reimbursable under Biden as we got under Trump. If Biden is more lenient, as he probably will be, it could mean hundreds of millions for us if we’re willing to go for it.
ASSUMPTION 4: RI revenue growth will reflect assumptions about recession severity from previous recessions where we made the economy way worse through brutal austerity.
ASSUMPTION 5: Medicaid caseloads will not drop, even though post-eligibility verification is scheduled to resume, and we’re headed for the mother of all Medicaid purges, one that’s going to have a massive effect, even if we take the most compassionate approach.
