Read on Twitter
2 years since Expected Threat (xT) was first published! Thought I’d highlight some of the exciting follow-up work that various people have done since: https://twitter.com/karun1710/status/1096425209765208064
First, a quick statistic that I had a hard time believing – 26,000+ unique people have visited the post and logged a total of 120.8 days (i.e., 4 months) of reading time!
[Explainers]
If reading a blog post isn’t your cup of tea, this recent podcast by @FanalyticsPod ( @ryanbailey57 and @MarkCarey93) is an excellent introduction to xT: https://twitter.com/FanalyticsPod/status/1334475562375671809
If reading a blog post isn’t your cup of tea, this recent podcast by @FanalyticsPod ( @ryanbailey57 and @MarkCarey93) is an excellent introduction to xT: https://twitter.com/FanalyticsPod/status/1334475562375671809
[Explainers]
If you prefer watching a talk, here’s one from the StatsBomb conference (Oct ‘19) that describes the intuition behind xT and its various applications:
(slides: https://tiny.cc/xt-statsbomb )
If you prefer watching a talk, here’s one from the StatsBomb conference (Oct ‘19) that describes the intuition behind xT and its various applications:
(slides: https://tiny.cc/xt-statsbomb )
[Extensions & Applications]
Continuing with the StatsBomb conference, @robwhickman explains how he extended xT to take defensive risk into account:
Continuing with the StatsBomb conference, @robwhickman explains how he extended xT to take defensive risk into account:
[Extensions & Applications]
@rjtavares / @lastrowview describes a method of evaluating off-the-ball player movements by combining xT and tracking data: https://medium.com/football-crunching/valuing-off-the-ball-movement-59d1b6d0a69d
@rjtavares / @lastrowview describes a method of evaluating off-the-ball player movements by combining xT and tracking data: https://medium.com/football-crunching/valuing-off-the-ball-movement-59d1b6d0a69d
[Extensions & Applications]
@dlareg49 proposed Joint Expected Threat (JxT) as a way of quantifying player chemistry, and incorporates this metric into various visualizations: https://twitter.com/dlareg49/status/1334107191461040130
@dlareg49 proposed Joint Expected Threat (JxT) as a way of quantifying player chemistry, and incorporates this metric into various visualizations: https://twitter.com/dlareg49/status/1334107191461040130
[Extensions & Applications]
@dperdomomeza1, @ddgirela, @EveryTeam_Mark, and James Goldring (Twenty3 Sport) used the xT framework, among many other techniques, to study how one can attack set defences:
@dperdomomeza1, @ddgirela, @EveryTeam_Mark, and James Goldring (Twenty3 Sport) used the xT framework, among many other techniques, to study how one can attack set defences:
[Extensions & Applications]
In this piece for ASA, @arjun_balaraman uses xT to identify MLS strikers that excel at creating shooting opportunities for themselves (in contrast to pure goal poachers): https://twitter.com/arjun_balaraman/status/1156666183346769927
In this piece for ASA, @arjun_balaraman uses xT to identify MLS strikers that excel at creating shooting opportunities for themselves (in contrast to pure goal poachers): https://twitter.com/arjun_balaraman/status/1156666183346769927
[Extensions & Applications]
Since xT doesn’t make any sport-specific assumptions, it can be adapted to other settings fairly easily. One example is @SamForstner and @yuorme's work on xT for ice hockey:
Since xT doesn’t make any sport-specific assumptions, it can be adapted to other settings fairly easily. One example is @SamForstner and @yuorme's work on xT for ice hockey:
[Extensions & Applications]
@rwohan integrated xT very effectively into a couple of his data-driven pieces to explain Liverpool’s anomalous midfield and Arteta’s cryptic comments:
https://www.espn.com/soccer/english-premier-league/story/4066509/liverpools-weird-midfield-has-been-key-to-their-remarkable-premier-league-season https://nograssintheclouds.substack.com/p/what-the-heck-is-mikel-arteta-talking
@rwohan integrated xT very effectively into a couple of his data-driven pieces to explain Liverpool’s anomalous midfield and Arteta’s cryptic comments:
https://www.espn.com/soccer/english-premier-league/story/4066509/liverpools-weird-midfield-has-been-key-to-their-remarkable-premier-league-season https://nograssintheclouds.substack.com/p/what-the-heck-is-mikel-arteta-talking
[Visualizations]
xT lends an additional level of granularity to xG-based visualizations. For example, we can now render game momentum timelines in addition to xG timelines, and danger heatmaps in addition to shot maps:
https://twitter.com/karun1710/status/1167900525775339520
![[Visualizations]xT lends an additional level of granularity to xG-based visualizations. For example, we can now render game momentum timelines in addition to xG timelines, and danger heatmaps in addition to shot maps: https://twitter.com/karun1710/status/1167900525775339520](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EuW29U5VEAQEnr7.jpg "[Visualizations]xT lends an additional level of granularity to xG-based visualizations. For example, we can now render game momentum timelines in addition to xG timelines, and danger heatmaps in addition to shot maps: https://twitter.com/karun1710/status/1167900525775339520")
![[Visualizations]xT lends an additional level of granularity to xG-based visualizations. For example, we can now render game momentum timelines in addition to xG timelines, and danger heatmaps in addition to shot maps: https://twitter.com/karun1710/status/1167900525775339520](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EuW2_k-VkAAkBSy.jpg "[Visualizations]xT lends an additional level of granularity to xG-based visualizations. For example, we can now render game momentum timelines in addition to xG timelines, and danger heatmaps in addition to shot maps: https://twitter.com/karun1710/status/1167900525775339520")
xT lends an additional level of granularity to xG-based visualizations. For example, we can now render game momentum timelines in addition to xG timelines, and danger heatmaps in addition to shot maps:
https://twitter.com/karun1710/status/1167900525775339520
[Visualizations]
@markrstats is one to follow if you’re interested in more xT-based visualizations; a couple of recent examples:
https://twitter.com/markrstats/status/1359945784431570944 https://twitter.com/markrstats/status/1358104418055512066
@markrstats is one to follow if you’re interested in more xT-based visualizations; a couple of recent examples:
https://twitter.com/markrstats/status/1359945784431570944 https://twitter.com/markrstats/status/1358104418055512066
[Comparisons]
@MaaikeVanRoy, @p_robberechts, @TomDecroos, and @jessejdavis1 comprehensively compared xT and VAEP along several dimensions and highlighted the fundamental tradeoffs each framework makes: https://dtai.cs.kuleuven.be/sports/blog/valuing-on-the-ball-actions-in-soccer-a-critical-comparison-of-xt-and-vaep
@MaaikeVanRoy, @p_robberechts, @TomDecroos, and @jessejdavis1 comprehensively compared xT and VAEP along several dimensions and highlighted the fundamental tradeoffs each framework makes: https://dtai.cs.kuleuven.be/sports/blog/valuing-on-the-ball-actions-in-soccer-a-critical-comparison-of-xt-and-vaep
[Comparisons]
Their group also occasionally publishes data-driven season reviews that contrast the players and actions highly valued by VAEP and xT: https://twitter.com/jessejdavis1/status/1354769241904439297
Their group also occasionally publishes data-driven season reviews that contrast the players and actions highly valued by VAEP and xT: https://twitter.com/jessejdavis1/status/1354769241904439297
[Comparisons]
How does xT stack up against xG as a predictive signal? @MilanKlaasman sheds more light on this topic here: https://twitter.com/MilanKlaasman/status/1251178569474232328
How does xT stack up against xG as a predictive signal? @MilanKlaasman sheds more light on this topic here: https://twitter.com/MilanKlaasman/status/1251178569474232328
- Finally, if you’d like to use xT values off-the-shelf, this is a good place to start: https://twitter.com/karun1710/status/1156196523765633024
- If you’d like to build your own xT model or extend it, feel free to reach out and I can provide pointers!
If I missed something, please let me know!
- If you’d like to build your own xT model or extend it, feel free to reach out and I can provide pointers!
If I missed something, please let me know!
